TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,408,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,501,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,408,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30e4…5102backed Yes2c213,813$4,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,691.083010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ff1…c554backed Yes2c77,438$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes6c62,328$3,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,739.682733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes2c54,414$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes3c53,219$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c44,253$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.94740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes5c35,999$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.443619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b6…2505backed Yes3c34,878$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+202.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed Yes5c32,000$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.573246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes2c25,057$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.19402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes0c22,962$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes4c22,660$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.1120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa388…d84ebacked Yes1c21,061$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422e…8a52backed Yes0c20,333$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes5c20,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf951…afdbbacked Yes2c19,436$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e32…31fdbacked Yes1c17,308$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e02…5696backed Yes1c15,501$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.941435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e1…65c8backed Yes2c14,364$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2424…3b61backed Yes4c13,711$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.94520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd143…83ecbacked Yes4c12,432$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.110221.6%22 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed Yes1c11,342$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.313514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes4c10,846$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.951513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c10,757$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.091015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81bc…fb58backed Yes2c9,766$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ff…7a4dbacked Yes4c9,612$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes2c9,303$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.23214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-93%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25e…9861backed Yes6c9,300$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.2850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ac…aa06backed Yes3c9,294$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.2370%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes4c8,776$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.95478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc4…cb23backed Yes2c8,761$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e91…3335backed Yes1c8,649$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.741010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f3…85debacked Yes6c8,545$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.681145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes3c8,282$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.59110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e76…c23fbacked Yes7c8,241$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes4c8,059$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.32616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes1c7,298$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.361010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-83.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes1c7,218$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.941483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713c…c6babacked Yes3c7,201$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes3c7,118$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.261043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes2c6,747$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.67994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8577…0eb3backed Yes3c6,708$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes3c6,530$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.34140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ad…35ebbacked Yes3c6,299$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes5c6,240$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.5311210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6131…fd16backed Yes4c6,112$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf63a…d769backed Yes3c6,085$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.282817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Yes4c5,991$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.071457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x659f…64e5backed Yes1c5,930$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc917…c359backed Yes7c5,851$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes5c5,776$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf7…aeb3backed Yes2c5,772$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4e…c0f5backed Yes2c5,238$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c5,184$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0728113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Yes3c5,114$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003813.2%5 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5225…20d7backed Yes4c4,863$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes8c4,600$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes4c4,405$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.24175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3024…b996backed Yes2c4,383$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8380%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd729…d97ebacked Yes6c4,380$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes4c4,354$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.74219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8230…a577backed Yes3c4,154$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204425%11 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+241.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed Yes7c4,029$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes2c4,004$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.333724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes2c4,002$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.844250%21 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5216…bf14backed Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes2c3,980$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.72454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf587…2759backed Yes3c3,960$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes3c3,896$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0711720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes3c3,600$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes1c3,563$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.94220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb845…d46bbacked Yes1c3,500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes2c3,500$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes3c3,500$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbebe…d658backed Yes5c3,498$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.21147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc8…f0c3backed Yes4c3,433$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c3,375$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes3c3,150$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.84120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60c2…ec07backed Yes3c3,030$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…bb7ebacked Yes3c3,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba3…738cbacked Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes4c2,884$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.81170%0 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16f…655cbacked Yes4c2,857$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002313%3 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc431…97cabacked Yes7c2,843$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19970%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c2,791$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.42482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed Yes2c2,769$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5c4…30a7backed Yes2c2,699$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59bb…6d65backed Yes7c2,654$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.78456.7%3 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80c6…3e50backed Yes6c2,441$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfff…d1f4backed Yes4c2,409$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.86911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-76.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ab…283fbacked Yes2c2,222$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce8…767bbacked Yes5c2,202$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x970e…d058backed Yes2c2,172$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes5c2,163$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a6…dd8fbacked Yes2c2,104$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+63%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe24…bc05backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.