TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,300,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,239,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,300,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes4c190,450$8,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,502.95620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes1c160,861$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363.081031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes7c75,630$5,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,507.0835123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14f7…232cbacked Yes3c72,138$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.31180%0 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c68,065$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.81015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9e…27b9backed Yes0c57,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1933…0903backed Yes1c55,313$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c37,462$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.15740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes7c20,678$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.2963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes1c20,554$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.17210%0 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes4c20,131$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.914010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c17,601$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.771466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ef…c56abacked Yes6c16,722$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes3c16,536$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.15402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a2…791cbacked Yes5c13,695$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.1950%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes6c12,946$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.4787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf597…2370backed Yes8c11,875$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-80.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c10,878$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.351490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf7…aeb3backed Yes1c9,844$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes4c9,636$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes1c9,100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.78195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes4c9,083$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.911043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes2c9,052$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.936518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes1c8,689$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.041483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes3c8,102$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.19643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes6c8,007$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.621435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e76…c23fbacked Yes7c7,661$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes7c6,909$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.276816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf77…202bbacked Yes1c6,333$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5890%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes4c6,034$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5211720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes3c6,000$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.251333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes8c5,575$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.032718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes7c5,513$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.0714337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes5c5,082$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.25290%0 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes6c5,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.53455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes4c4,732$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.35240%0 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes4c4,629$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.761315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3892…b08fbacked Yes2c4,588$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes6c4,534$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x659f…64e5backed Yes0c4,085$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…c80dbacked Yes6c4,057$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes7c3,839$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.813619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes1c3,513$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes7c3,276$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.656835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80b9…0863backed Yes8c3,228$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.95180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c3,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e8…c707backed Yes6c3,086$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.314015%6 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ff3…e581backed Yes6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da5…90c9backed Yes8c2,907$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.39137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-85%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07ec…2ea5backed Yes3c2,854$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c2,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.974163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e2…41e7backed Yes1c2,654$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes6c2,441$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.526446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0e…540cbacked Yes4c2,273$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd84f…f0e0backed Yes8c2,209$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e4…3267backed Yes1c2,167$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5d8…6fcfbacked Yes1c2,149$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.781118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4129…4dc9backed Yes1c2,116$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes5c2,100$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.63831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aea…79c1backed Yes9c2,069$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes6c2,069$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8228113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa4…d1aebacked Yes6c2,066$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a48…a7e6backed Yes6c2,037$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes8c2,029$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5211330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes6c2,002$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.091288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca55…efebbacked Yes7c2,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.29100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes5c2,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.792642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f91…1b30backed Yes7c1,876$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Yes2c1,781$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.333520%7 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4e…9c71backed Yes4c1,688$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes11c1,647$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.12150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a75…7d66backed Yes9c1,571$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.68850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e3…4f16backed Yes5c1,516$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x211e…b366backed Yes5c1,500$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b2…c013backed Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-69.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes5c1,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116b…0380backed Yes5c1,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ca…711bbacked Yes6c1,492$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e31…4716backed Yes5c1,480$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.62516%4 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e01…a4babacked Yes4c1,467$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66260%0 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf63a…d769backed Yes6c1,459$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.582817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes7c1,431$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes6c1,365$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.92478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf13a…a600backed Yes4c1,343$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.73119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8d…299cbacked Yes6c1,333$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31d3…6e63backed Yes5c1,276$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7689…8ffebacked Yes5c1,276$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.121723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2208…53eebacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf77b…26d6backed Yes4c1,203$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.04120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9848…6355backed Yes4c1,153$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcee…4531backed Yes7c1,116$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…c3b0backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x206a…c01bbacked Yes6c1,100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2a…37d7backed Yes9c1,099$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…1ad9backed Yes6c1,083$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-84.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed Yes7c1,007$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.583514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa022…d2c5backed Yes7c1,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…a4babacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.