TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$332,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,209 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes23c58,935$13,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,531.346835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd849…6ac7backed No72c28,522$20,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,986.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes28c8,658$2,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.0763835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes19c8,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.994721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No66c7,476$4,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,531.2619535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No76c6,522$4,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.1187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No79c6,033$4,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.2328113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaed1…84e5backed No52c5,800$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d17…f3adbacked No70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…6e71backed Yes12c3,983$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.8190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes23c3,604$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.883946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…1e55backed Yes3c3,542$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb42…76a5backed Yes29c3,138$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4377…1764backed Yes10c2,075$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaac7…64babacked No78c1,595$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.691376.9%10 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick77cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fb…f1f6backed No74c1,273$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.741353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes8c1,215$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.69110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a5…e3cabacked No72c1,206$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325b…4466backed No65c1,177$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed Yes42c1,168$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.641428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8af1…3ddabacked Yes45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc0…c46cbacked Yes31c1,071$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3341711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x663d…7d23backed Yes24c1,062$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Yes38c1,010$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd6…8b1dbacked Yes2c1,002$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa21b…08cebacked Yes10c906.65$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…0ac6backed No62c900$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3424470.5%31 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+21.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x08be…bea8backed No64c872.6$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…e223backed Yes29c820.4$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.251040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes8c797.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.831483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes26c766.15$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.462445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30cb…b901backed No62c740.98$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No56c736.65$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.4713770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9095…96f7backed No58c699.99$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2962972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+39.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x08b2…b689backed No78c693.73$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf94c…4484backed No74c601.25$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.271338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed No64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2163666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x970c…52c2backed No76c550.08$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbff…e8e7backed No70c502.52$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a1…7833backed Yes40c500.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1153164.5%20 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa953…8bf7backed No64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed No65c473.56$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9111330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked No47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.532673.1%19 W · 7 L+5.9wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+24.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2e0d…bc8dbacked No64c425.02$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+76%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes26c416.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.991010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-83.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes7c392.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.772270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d69…ab3abacked Yes3c388.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff1…e56dbacked Yes24c380.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes39c378.49$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.993823.7%9 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dba…c1a7backed Yes24c370.71$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9760%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7992…33b2backed Yes36c357.55$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes8c340.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa927…4847backed Yes31c323$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+63.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a43…5e26backed Yes29c309.7$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes22c299.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-80.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked No52c299.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef63…44b9backed Yes37c299.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc073…861bbacked Yes5c285.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes39c281.65$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.978467.9%57 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48d9…0dcabacked Yes26c268.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ea…105dbacked No62c257.83$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.832128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd81…9d6bbacked Yes35c250$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Yes49c249.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.49812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-84.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6253…ce67backed Yes22c238.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.66825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked No77c208$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.923650%18 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc658…64acbacked No69c207.35$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6766…0db2backed Yes30c200.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d5…fba3backed No58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b87…3e8dbacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.05650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.55318.9%10 W · 43 L-8.0wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaecd…27abbacked No79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc7…e5eebacked No55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+75.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacba…40a1backed No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7af9…e4ebbacked Yes30c166$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+65.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58bb…a539backed Yes27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea75…1920backed No69c144.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+82%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc166…7c15backed No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f6…4d7ebacked No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.896100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+54.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No74c135.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.210067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf975…ee79backed Yes25c132.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fff…7500backed No68c131.27$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.011154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f0…c807backed Yes42c131.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes43c130$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.914019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0644…c749backed Yes31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd8…3f70backed No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64f…6cc3backed No79c125.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.88955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…7871backed No79c123.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d10…8413backed No79c123.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92e6…6180backed No63c118.22$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd8…c209backed No80c115.46$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb1…4249backed No60c105$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda42…dc4fbacked No58c104.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea1…47e4backed Yes49c102.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f3…d82cbacked No62c101.95$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb5…72d7backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e6…f87cbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+47.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.