TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,784,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,444,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,784,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 603 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes3c340,267$9,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,066.26620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9e…27b9backed Yes0c232,927$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.58100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4bb…240bbacked Yes2c110,540$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes3c105,262$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.71333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes4c104,016$3,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.742733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes8c100,118$8,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,019.0263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd2…31f4backed Yes28c90,805$25,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,434.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes2c90,589$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.691031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c63,156$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.651015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes3c62,777$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.121466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes4c49,729$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.78402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c47,798$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.16740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc84…81edbacked Yes4c46,284$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Yes2c37,502$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.8240%0 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de7…89a4backed Yes0c30,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50190%0 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes29c25,000$7,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,149.992445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes1c20,807$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes20c20,041$3,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,962.4187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47a…6d60backed No75c20,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b73…66f2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c19,864$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.8613117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes10c18,687$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.22339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No74c18,059$13,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,645.111457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a1…2842backed Yes2c16,874$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.761483.4%5 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No79c16,759$13,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,546.7937745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a0…c658backed Yes1c15,345$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked No76c14,425$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.551376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+78%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes1c12,465$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.75220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes20c12,278$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.2914337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes2c12,250$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.03320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd83c…19dcbacked No79c12,016$9,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.71366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes6c11,734$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.4211720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c11,100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes1c10,804$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.14195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-90.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Yes1c10,470$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.93520%7 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…ca99backed Yes3c10,409$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7102…19aebacked Yes2c10,258$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes11c10,099$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.222910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes3c9,857$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.492920.7%6 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes8c9,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.99643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a39…345fbacked Yes1c9,496$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes2c9,349$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.55994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes2c9,003$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.471043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf77…202bbacked Yes1c8,810$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.190%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e2…4346backed Yes10c8,621$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659f…64e5backed Yes0c8,511$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes12c8,413$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.696835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes23c8,040$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.77150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c8,025$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.861490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No74c7,293$5,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.143452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes1c7,286$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.162619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes1c7,252$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47210%0 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37f4…49afbacked Yes22c7,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.98922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+97.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes16c6,987$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes3c6,666$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.576518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e60…ae42backed Yes15c6,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No75c5,600$4,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.961782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1da5…90c9backed Yes22c5,571$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-85%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf597…2370backed Yes20c5,313$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.991612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-80.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes18c5,184$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.273455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…e03cbacked No77c5,006$3,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x518c…8d39backed Yes18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf2…17f2backed Yes20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes1c4,806$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.44240%0 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…5181backed Yes2c4,713$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9877…13a8backed Yes1c4,631$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed Yes22c4,427$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6b…52b0backed Yes22c4,366$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc59…5402backed Yes1c4,180$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7e…5ba1backed Yes24c4,093$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83f0…6ff5backed Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6e…e39dbacked No77c3,967$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.361872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes22c3,922$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.61478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd988…fd9dbacked Yes2c3,880$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77eb…9d5cbacked No75c3,864$2,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.941656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes3c3,575$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.25614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e64…fc32backed Yes14c3,456$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10e8…c707backed Yes12c3,332$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.794015%6 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf245…e78abacked Yes12c3,283$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…62a4backed Yes13c3,270$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.993215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes12c3,173$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.384010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5342…d243backed Yes18c3,143$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.962425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a2…791cbacked Yes15c3,129$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.6850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes12c3,108$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.17922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b3…e903backed Yes2c3,104$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d17…9054backed Yes1c3,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bbe…b9dcbacked No79c3,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb39e…9fc6backed Yes1c2,991$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…6a3dbacked Yes3c2,978$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4a…dd04backed Yes18c2,778$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf7…aeb3backed Yes4c2,778$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c2,657$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e66…668fbacked No76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.58520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe004…cce7backed Yes1c2,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37510%0 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed No79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+83%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19de…713ebacked Yes4c2,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e31…4716backed Yes23c2,354$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.122516%4 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes15c2,350$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.981533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.