TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, NRG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,063,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,121,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,063,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 676 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked NRG63c112,021$70,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,214.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed NRG77c100,000$77,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,999.9354751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed FUT Esports25c86,067$21,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,308.411650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+43.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports43c84,661$36,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,009.1252155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3913…83cabacked NRG0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked FUT Esports62c47,392$29,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,034.3826650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FUT Esports34c38,183$13,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,048.1312951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed FUT Esports34c36,834$12,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,398.061861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked NRG68c30,759$20,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,763.2628955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0111…1071backed NRG57c24,000$13,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,679.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked FUT Esports38c18,469$7,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,383.7819046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f90…8ed1backed NRG34c17,717$6,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,054.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-81.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked FUT Esports37c16,145$5,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,148.4478162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked NRG31c15,479$4,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,847.3928541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked FUT Esports49c13,770$6,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,043.8517948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed NRG40c12,798$5,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,067.6474642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed NRG61c12,303$7,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,506.1926050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ee…f8fabacked NRG2c12,226$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports47c12,000$5,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,325.1368458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked NRG64c11,172$7,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,187.0733153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FUT Esports49c9,615$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,934.2365559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FUT Esports46c7,900$3,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,248.9753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked FUT Esports40c7,389$2,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.119340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed FUT Esports39c7,192$2,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,416.147847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed FUT Esports40c6,723$2,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,006.6414941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FUT Esports52c6,574$3,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,131.6378562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed FUT Esports38c6,123$2,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.9724946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed NRG68c5,587$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8003043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed FUT Esports37c5,330$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,368.343141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed FUT Esports58c5,205$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.622055%11 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FUT Esports37c5,083$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,195.9317640.3%71 W · 105 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x728c…c269backed NRG0c5,029$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed NRG54c4,816$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.281,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed NRG40c4,650$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.1226932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked NRG39c4,237$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.2330835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed NRG38c4,210$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.8946326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked NRG39c4,178$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.8842140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed NRG29c4,100$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1894247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FUT Esports37c4,002$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.2539042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed FUT Esports58c3,904$2,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.026259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked NRG40c3,888$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.0688844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167e…28d9backed NRG78c3,887$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed NRG37c3,782$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.9642540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FUT Esports41c3,751$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.7832462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed FUT Esports42c3,746$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.976746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked FUT Esports28c3,698$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.3714534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed FUT Esports36c3,538$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.192050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed FUT Esports36c3,528$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,257.943243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed FUT Esports23c3,500$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6955655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed FUT Esports54c3,240$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.42466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports59c3,173$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.3956357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed NRG10c3,147$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.0433942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed NRG65c3,077$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf6…2d98backed FUT Esports41c3,061$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed NRG59c3,028$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.98145.7%37 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked NRG35c3,025$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.141,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked NRG46c3,018$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed FUT Esports43c2,852$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.6660022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports60c2,809$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.3653355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed FUT Esports26c2,780$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.4732245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked FUT Esports42c2,675$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.642161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed FUT Esports56c2,656$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.753053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked NRG1c2,650$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5701.4%1 W · 69 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed NRG62c2,529$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.0419860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked FUT Esports33c2,483$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.646931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked FUT Esports41c2,439$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.022941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FUT Esports56c2,400$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.4360154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked NRG72c2,250$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6206445.3%29 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed NRG1c2,143$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.63185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed NRG65c2,134$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.95757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked NRG30c2,122$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.182030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c48…eba9backed FUT Esports38c2,111$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.397045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed FUT Esports39c2,070$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.1634857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked NRG74c2,065$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.0312147.1%57 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bef…5e49backed FUT Esports57c2,064$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+67.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03d8…e73cbacked FUT Esports38c2,044$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.073050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FUT Esports46c2,000$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.4424250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed NRG60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked NRG42c1,973$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.9421136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed NRG78c1,954$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.123857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed7a…a656backed FUT Esports24c1,950$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.624040%16 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed NRG21c1,885$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3891225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed NRG49c1,875$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.614750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed FUT Esports39c1,848$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.2710842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed FUT Esports38c1,823$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.796848.5%33 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked NRG70c1,741$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.1811450%57 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed NRG62c1,612$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.415244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…13c0backed FUT Esports38c1,603$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.985248.1%25 W · 27 L-7.2wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-23.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FUT Esports37c1,600$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.9741734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76dc…61f4backed FUT Esports49c1,556$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked FUT Esports29c1,507$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.031450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc11…3636backed FUT Esports40c1,507$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.861163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85f8…fe20backed NRG70c1,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked NRG42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FUT Esports40c1,489$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89128747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed FUT Esports39c1,472$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.838646.5%40 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed FUT Esports60c1,456$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.446373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9235…3fbdbacked NRG61c1,420$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.972965.5%19 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b54…4dd0backed NRG6c1,381$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+227.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f25…abffbacked NRG70c1,380$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.