Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f29ba2beeaa7e62beddf427bba222460da61c8b055b100daa629aa278bd0085

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $834,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $556,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $834,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 495 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	62,890$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.44	136	16.2%22 W · 114 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf613…b2dbbacked Yes	4c	25,005$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	24,299$2,805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,805.43	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	2c	22,848$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.33	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	19,625$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	13,778$1,234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,234.45	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	13,041$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.13	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf272…c118backed Yes	19c	11,606$2,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,156.55	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	10,100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.2	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	16c	9,614$1,563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,563.19	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	0c	9,359$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	5c	8,946$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.22	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	30c	7,781$2,348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,348.4	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	8c	7,756$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.08	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	19c	6,027$1,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,124.59	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	8c	6,024$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	11c	5,829$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.76	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa757…2438backed Yes	1c	5,721$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.08	20	10%2 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	15c	5,577$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.17	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	7c	5,354$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.46	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	9c	5,307$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.78	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	5,178$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.92	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	17c	5,142$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	5c	5,030$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.59	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	5,007$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.19	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	18c	4,868$883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$883.01	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	79c	4,588$3,614 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$974.22	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	5c	4,441$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.84	211	22.3%47 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	4,040$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.67	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	6c	4,012$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.98	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	3,925$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.74	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	13c	3,813$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.65	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	21c	3,810$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.09	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	14c	3,701$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.34	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	3,683$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.86	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	17c	3,653$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.05	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	10c	3,538$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.23	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	13c	3,519$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.1	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	10c	3,506$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.15	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	16c	3,448$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.38	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	8c	3,393$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.21	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	8c	3,312$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.3	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes	15c	3,270$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.34	106	29.2%31 W · 75 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	12c	3,198$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.3	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	5c	3,049$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.2	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	79c	2,924$2,322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$602.11	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	14c	2,878$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.49	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	12c	2,857$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.15	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	2,841$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.82	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74f4…bf8dbacked Yes	16c	2,730$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.4	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	44cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed Yes	22c	2,636$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.94	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	11c	2,615$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.59	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed No	68c	2,601$1,767 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$834.64	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	13c	2,427$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.23	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	17c	2,416$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.49	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	2c	2,408$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	76c	2,400$1,820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.98	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b3e…74d0backed Yes	9c	2,385$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes	6c	2,227$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.76	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	13c	2,224$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.12	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	29c	2,217$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.56	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes	9c	2,201$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.76	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee72…5d8dbacked Yes	14c	2,201$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.92	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	5c	2,082$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.56	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	12c	2,045$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.25	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	8c	2,017$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.7	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	4c	2,004$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.43	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	20c	2,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Yes	32c	1,892$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.5	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	11c	1,811$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.24	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	19c	1,752$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.82	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	6c	1,750$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	19c	1,737$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.3	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes	9c	1,710$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	53	34%18 W · 35 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	3c	1,700$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.19	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	1,656$1,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.95	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	13c	1,652$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.9	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	7c	1,638$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.03	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	9c	1,601$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.39	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes	32c	1,577$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	21c	1,513$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.18	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	25c	1,512$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.12	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed No	80c	1,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	22c	1,489$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes	19c	1,472$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.52	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	16c	1,471$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.34	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	15c	1,415$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.19	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes	2c	1,400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	124	24.2%30 W · 94 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	15cpaid	+100.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	1,386$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.41	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes	22c	1,364$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…396dbacked Yes	16c	1,354$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.76	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	22c	1,347$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.07	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…1949backed Yes	2c	1,332$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	8c	1,310$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.43	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	21c	1,304$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.82	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa99…fd3fbacked No	78c	1,300$1,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	77cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b9…9ff4backed Yes	8c	1,298$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event