Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a19e7edbfa5df051758de9590b3fd4e4f60977e84edf299bb9e597af63bf5a8

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $288,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $130,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,518 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	61,109$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	2c	10,989$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.09	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	5,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,144$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.59	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	6c	5,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	3,000$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,868$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	10c	2,802$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.97	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,590$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.21	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	2,577$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.21	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	2,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.84	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	5c	1,839$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.2	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5273…16debacked Yes	3c	1,833$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	5c	1,776$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.22	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	1,700$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.7	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	1,575$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,452$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.42	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,444$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.45	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,428$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.34	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	1,405$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	5c	1,376$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.19	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	1,254$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	7c	1,117$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	4c	1,056$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,050$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.08	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,017$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	803.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	8c	617.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	7c	600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	582.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	550.97$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.26	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	505.36$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.44	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	77	14.3%11 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	473.79$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	6c	470.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.21	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	6c	470.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes	7c	457.6$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.03	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	5c	446.96$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	442.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	5c	415.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	5c	403.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ac…c4a8backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	8c	395.06$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	346.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes	4c	269.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	249	32.9%82 W · 167 L	-33.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	5c	264.38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	7c	257$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	224.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	5c	209.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d7…e563backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64d…b164backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	11c	199.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	12c	195$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf21c…6934backed Yes	18c	153.29$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	11c	137.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…79edbacked Yes	8c	126$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	10c	107$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…d94bbacked Yes	16c	106.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…5e5fbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0319…4120backed Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x258e…b6b9backed Yes	16c	64.44$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event