Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa390a85e67d73fab31acf4af1ec3fea1102b3e745b1e9fceaa9d4b6e875aadaa

Rebuilt 25 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $631,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $679,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $631,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 653 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed No	47c	34,200$15,938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,937.89	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	14,054$2,363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,691.19	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	42c	10,119$4,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,870.53	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked No	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked No	0c	9,760$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.04	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	77c	7,438$5,714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,723.5	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No	1c	6,405$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	47c	6,231$2,905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,326.4	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	78c	6,168$4,788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,380.72	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	64c	6,019$3,840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,179.22	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	17c	6,000$1,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,981.54	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	62c	5,785$3,585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,584.73	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	70c	5,700$4,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,681.79	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	39c	5,573$2,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,197.01	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	26c	5,370$1,384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,383.94	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	58c	5,206$2,994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,211.81	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	30c	5,178$1,566 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,611.67	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	73c	5,116$3,720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,396.91	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No	27c	4,556$1,217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,217.19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab0…11f8backed No	3c	4,118$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.5	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	71c	4,000$2,843 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,156.62	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No	3c	3,995$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.95	210	63.3%133 W · 77 L	+22.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No	39c	3,929$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530.27	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	66c	3,857$2,553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,304.19	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No	3c	3,800$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.16	124	24.2%30 W · 94 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	15cpaid	+100.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked No	3c	3,778$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.96	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	47c	3,614$1,683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,931.62	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	61c	3,602$2,187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,415.39	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	31c	3,586$1,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,109.77	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	46c	3,577$1,646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,930.89	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	17c	3,497$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,887.3	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	18c	3,467$632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,834.99	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	63c	3,423$2,156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,266.26	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	50c	3,400$1,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,707.37	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	43c	3,371$1,455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,916.68	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	25c	3,358$855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,503.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4851…ccf5backed Yes	54c	3,345$1,792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,552.71	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No	4c	3,174$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.24	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	46c	3,037$1,401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,636.17	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	64c	2,958$1,884 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,073.81	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	7c	2,940$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.8	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes	69c	2,914$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$913.71	143	32.9%47 W · 96 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	27c	2,886$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.91	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633c…f71fbacked Yes	80c	2,755$2,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$554.85	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No	22c	2,654$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.92	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	52c	2,624$1,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,254.16	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Yes	36c	2,370$858 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,512.01	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	71c	2,353$1,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,679.13	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	2,286$1,535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,535.16	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No	38c	2,250$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.49	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No	37c	2,250$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.48	50	30%15 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed Yes	70c	2,133$1,489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.89	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+57%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No	37c	2,113$788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.41	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No	10c	2,096$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.67	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	21c	2,072$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,628.9	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	43c	2,000$854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,146	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	58c	1,950$1,123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$826.99	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed Yes	36c	1,944$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,244.51	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	53cpaid	+66%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	1,900$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,805.22	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes	21c	1,867$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,467.48	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3e…74d0backed No	7c	1,783$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	55c	1,769$970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.21	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…d5abbacked No	63c	1,749$1,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,101.56	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+151.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	21c	1,700$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.57	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	39c	1,700$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	20c	1,640$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,319.86	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No	24c	1,632$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.99	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	7c	1,610$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,491.39	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes	45c	1,457$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$797.29	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	60c	1,400$838 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.73	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	33c	1,395$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$929.21	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked Yes	65c	1,383$901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$481.83	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes	41c	1,381$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$816.78	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f61…2680backed Yes	33c	1,304$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$869.73	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	30c	1,299$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.33	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	50c	1,293$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.44	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed No	5c	1,250$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes	67c	1,229$823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.51	90	35.6%32 W · 58 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c77…2eb1backed No	50c	1,218$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.7	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	16c	1,211$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,015.23	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes	19c	1,139$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$927.14	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…f169backed Yes	72c	1,111$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.08	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	29c	1,074$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.79	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	52c	1,046$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.93	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes	39c	1,000$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	29c	1,000$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b4…3cf1backed No	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	4c	999.98$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.99	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No	55c	995.09$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.3	89	60.7%54 W · 35 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa845…563ebacked Yes	56c	978.35$547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431.1	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	75c	933.33$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.33	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No	72c	912.66$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.06	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…5976backed Yes	40c	905.56$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.56	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	37c	891.99$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.96	241	55.6%134 W · 107 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	70c	882.06$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.78	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	8c	871.32$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$804.19	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	35c	863.36$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.16	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	45c	861.81$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475.45	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee72…5d8dbacked Yes	31c	850$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$587.5	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event