Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e1b036b3ece151ed116949044809614eab3f0666be56d5d0839a4cb8405cfd7

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $283,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $115,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,378 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	61,110$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.67	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	16,595$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	11,666$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	2c	8,213$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.3	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	5c	5,552$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.6	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	4,627$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.87	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	3,643$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.91	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	3,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.76	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	2,735$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.77	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,642$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.73	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,625$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	2,500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	1c	2,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	1,920$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,550$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,526$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.09	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,479$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	1,400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	1,308$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.63	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	1,194$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,137$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	27c	1,130$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	926.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	920.78$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	2c	914.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	851.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes	7c	785.44$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.98	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	726.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ac…c4a8backed Yes	3c	649.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	3c	644.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	5c	598.4$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.46	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	7c	580$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	546.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84b…ded7backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e3…d0debacked Yes	2c	499.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	486.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.36	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	395.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	8c	367.82$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	300$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	5c	205.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	5c	203.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d7…e563backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64d…b164backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	7c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef6c…33efbacked Yes	9c	133.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb621…0eb4backed Yes	15c	68.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No	79c	31.22$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.41	264	61.7%163 W · 101 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event