Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf9e4142cf865daaa041243188cc7197fa9bfc2bb67df9e124d9e0ee3fba8f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $786,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $478,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $786,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 221,117$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.12 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes | 1c | 42,442$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 27,823$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…9e4cbacked Yes | 0c | 21,922$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 21,241$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 1c | 16,486$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 13,671$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 328 | 1.2%4 W · 324 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 0c | 10,487$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,378$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 17%18 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 0c | 9,182$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…1c04backed Yes | 0c | 8,234$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 0c | 7,344$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 7,131$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 6,703$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes | 0c | 6,590$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 5,556$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,517$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,438$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,232$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…b7f4backed Yes | 0c | 4,075$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…9a02backed Yes | 1c | 3,987$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…500fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,995$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 114 | 8.8%10 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Yes | 1c | 2,859$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 1c | 2,550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes | 4c | 2,325$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…2d20backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 1c | 1,933$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,854$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,710$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d8…8082backed Yes | 3c | 1,686$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,629$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,506$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 1c | 1,475$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 4c | 1,423$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 70 | 10%7 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 1c | 1,340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,293$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 118 | 5.9%7 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…b624backed Yes | 2c | 1,038$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…7883backed Yes | 2c | 1,033$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 70 | 10%7 W · 63 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,031$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 769.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 5c | 735.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 583.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 494.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes | 2c | 456.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…10d9backed Yes | 4c | 405.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 367.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 5c | 333.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 247$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.