Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481ac9e80ce8f1ae728a7018423a31f9c70739368fbe6c9d53c2992480904518

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $968,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $641,268

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $968,435 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 621 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	5c	107,724$4,892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,891.9	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	17,521$1,835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,835.2	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	9c	14,300$1,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,352.11	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe875…8492backed Yes	1c	13,375$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.33	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	13,351$1,938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,937.6	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	12c	12,015$1,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,478.67	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	26c	10,411$2,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,729.04	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes	0c	10,068$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	3c	9,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	12c	8,579$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$992.86	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	17c	8,534$1,412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,412.31	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	18c	7,752$1,383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,382.83	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	23c	7,734$1,771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,770.71	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	17c	7,405$1,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,282.4	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	13c	7,109$903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$902.97	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	10c	7,032$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.34	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	6,802$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.59	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	23c	6,647$1,531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530.51	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	6,476$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.76	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	19c	5,518$1,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.12	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8c…60aabacked Yes	5c	5,350$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	5,336$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.75	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	15c	4,922$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.09	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	16c	4,890$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.63	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed No	69c	4,869$3,377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,491.92	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	22c	4,802$1,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,052.81	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	11c	4,674$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.27	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	30c	4,611$1,386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,386.29	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	2c	4,398$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.48	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	15c	4,209$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.46	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4b…525fbacked Yes	13c	4,198$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.49	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	22c	4,118$921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$921.2	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	13c	4,008$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.45	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	1c	4,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Yes	0c	3,885$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	14c	3,864$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	13c	3,783$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes	5c	3,526$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.01	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	78c	3,362$2,629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$732.66	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes	12c	3,356$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.87	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x827d…b276backed Yes	2c	3,307$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+35%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4851…ccf5backed Yes	30c	3,287$985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$985	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	19c	3,285$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	20c	3,226$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.4	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	13c	3,200$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.93	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	26c	3,168$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.82	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	78c	3,046$2,389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$657.45	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	2c	3,024$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.71	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2df…3b97backed Yes	22c	2,994$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	27c	2,917$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$796.82	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	15c	2,800$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.63	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes	15c	2,797$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.82	64	21.9%14 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	3c	2,725$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.3	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	17c	2,451$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.37	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	11c	2,330$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.9	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	5c	2,312$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.48	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	10c	2,268$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	7c	2,250$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.56	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	20c	2,231$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.23	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e93…be55backed Yes	1c	2,230$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	26c	2,206$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.61	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a6…69f3backed Yes	1c	2,200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.34	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	7c	2,200$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.21	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa30…47ccbacked Yes	1c	2,181$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	10c	2,147$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.3	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,130$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6a…61f0backed Yes	21c	2,126$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.88	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	2,114$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.87	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	2,087$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.47	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	25c	2,046$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.96	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes	20c	2,027$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	5c	2,008$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.92	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	13c	2,000$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.3	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	15c	1,997$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.97	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	16c	1,993$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.88	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes	19c	1,957$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.51	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	6c	1,948$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.47	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	26c	1,924$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	17c	1,898$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	7c	1,857$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	29c	1,837$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.59	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	34c	1,823$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.88	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	11c	1,803$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.1	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	18c	1,770$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.35	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ef…5eb0backed Yes	11c	1,745$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes	19c	1,741$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.6	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f13…1631backed Yes	18c	1,709$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.08	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes	20c	1,684$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	10c	1,675$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.08	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f9…94a6backed Yes	28c	1,627$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.67	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+31%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	9c	1,600$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.22	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0857…063ebacked No	75c	1,600$1,194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.1	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	21c	1,546$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.05	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	21c	1,533$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.68	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	11c	1,518$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.44	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	1c	1,512$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	13c	1,509$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.09	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	15c	1,482$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.68	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	20c	1,478$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.89	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event