Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b50f46860795f7d9dd122314a643e29b5e8c8466a9f4ad28238990aba9be236

Rebuilt 13 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $823,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $521,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $823,899 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	112,925$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.76	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	59,552$868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.43	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	1c	26,385$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.65	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	24,169$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.5	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	15,000$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.67	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	3c	14,185$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.07	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	1c	14,160$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	7c	13,806$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	11,713$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.6	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	11,124$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.39	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	10,854$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.45	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	1c	10,619$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.97	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	9,353$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.74	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	8,579$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.52	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes	5c	8,508$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	3c	7,182$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.16	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…9e4cbacked Yes	1c	7,053$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.98	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	6,900$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.39	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	3c	6,530$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.07	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	6,001$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.26	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	5,524$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes	2c	5,118$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.29	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	5,079$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.22	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes	2c	4,851$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.63	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	4,794$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.9	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	4,525$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.5	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	4,372$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.16	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	1c	4,287$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.45	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	3c	3,900$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	2c	3,782$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.37	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	3c	3,656$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.75	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	2c	3,460$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,335$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.23	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	1c	3,300$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	3,248$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.17	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	2c	3,154$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.18	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	3,148$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	1c	3,058$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.97	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df7…1c04backed Yes	3c	3,048$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	2c	3,035$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.4	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,982$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	2c	2,773$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.93	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	3c	2,659$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	7c	2,605$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	2c	2,576$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	2c	2,568$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.76	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	4c	2,531$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.13	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	4c	2,327$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.76	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	1c	2,273$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…1ac1backed Yes	2c	2,252$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	1c	2,250$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.87	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	1c	2,205$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.81	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	4c	2,100$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.2	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	3c	2,073$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53d8…8082backed Yes	6c	2,045$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.4	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	7c	2,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.8	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,997$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.09	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	4c	1,814$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.99	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,749$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.06	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes	1c	1,697$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes	1c	1,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	5c	1,640$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.73	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	4c	1,639$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.57	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	1,636$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.18	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	1,544$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.19	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	7c	1,543$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.2	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	7c	1,537$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.58	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	2c	1,536$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	1,480$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	1,447$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.53	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	1c	1,400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd936…8318backed Yes	2c	1,378$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	75	28%21 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	4c	1,370$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.11	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	3c	1,353$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	2c	1,318$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x776d…a16bbacked Yes	1c	1,309$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+136.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	4c	1,295$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.89	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ca8…18c7backed Yes	1c	1,280$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+180.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	8c	1,260$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.48	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	1,258$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.23	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f7…2353backed Yes	2c	1,252$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+117.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	3c	1,238$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.03	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes	3c	1,232$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes	7c	1,221$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.99	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x118b…4569backed Yes	2c	1,218$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	+50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,205$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes	1c	1,198$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	4c	1,198$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	1,182$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes	4c	1,158$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	177	28.2%50 W · 127 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	1,107$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.94	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	3c	1,100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes	5c	1,077$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	1c	1,067$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	3c	1,066$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes	2c	1,047$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	1,042$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	1,016$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	5c	1,004$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.89	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event