Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b72b8f5021419eeee56662e29198d4491c7326e5b44838b8c26e7e7190e191a

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $725,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $509,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $725,076 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	66,009$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.85	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	29,410$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	3c	25,269$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.33	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	4c	16,314$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.1	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	16,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	15,085$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.34	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	12,362$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.04	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	0c	9,836$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	14c	9,365$1,273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,273.09	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	1c	9,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.79	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	8,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	7,021$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.02	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	6,631$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.48	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	17c	6,000$1,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,047.33	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	5,903$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.99	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	1c	5,307$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.58	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	5,000$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.1	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	4,923$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.08	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	2c	4,705$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.72	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	4,575$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	4,520$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.29	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	2c	4,112$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.88	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	3,801$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.02	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes	20c	3,668$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.06	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	3,659$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	16c	3,607$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.34	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5d…b79ebacked Yes	0c	3,412$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	19c	3,363$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.84	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	7c	3,200$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	9c	3,200$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.44	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,131$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.95	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,910$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.28	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	6c	2,818$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.88	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	3c	2,600$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.24	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,598$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	19c	2,500$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.32	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	3c	2,300$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.93	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	2,282$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.1	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	5c	2,272$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.23	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	5c	2,206$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	2,200$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.76	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,161$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	20c	2,157$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.29	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	11c	2,000$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f48…ebeabacked Yes	4c	1,924$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.07	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	10c	1,910$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	1,908$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	8c	1,904$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.69	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	9c	1,899$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.01	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	8c	1,856$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.4	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	17c	1,784$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	18c	1,765$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.71	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	1,762$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.54	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x024b…85cabacked Yes	14c	1,664$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.11	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	18c	1,629$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	10c	1,610$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.9	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,592$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.37	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	1,486$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.84	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Yes	1c	1,391$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,387$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.03	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	16c	1,318$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.86	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	3c	1,304$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x983d…76aebacked Yes	14c	1,263$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.76	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	16c	1,196$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	3c	1,175$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.62	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	18c	1,146$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.79	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	7c	1,089$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.51	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	10c	1,080$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.67	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	8c	1,068$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.71	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes	1c	1,067$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	5c	1,052$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.49	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	19c	1,048$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	15c	1,022$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	3c	1,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	3c	999.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	999.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	19c	972.39$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.22	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47d7…df89backed Yes	16c	969.18$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.55	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc793…02a9backed Yes	2c	963.37$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec9…5f0dbacked Yes	4c	953.61$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-91%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	18c	951.29$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.33	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	8c	943.69$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.1	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	8c	943.69$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.93	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	1c	900.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	3c	892.85$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	11c	864.76$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.19	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	6c	849.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.95	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	849.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.98	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	7c	843.78$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	12c	843.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes	4c	836.71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.23	109	17.4%19 W · 90 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac6…e596backed Yes	20c	807$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.06	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+94.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	14c	800$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a28…1df7backed Yes	6c	787.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	180	24.4%44 W · 136 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes	14c	785.71$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf240…1ac1backed Yes	3c	767.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event