TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$225,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,013 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes0c55,555$56 inLost-$55.5513815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes0c16,808$40 inLost-$39.992259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c12,417$100 inLost-$100.443281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes0c11,578$25 inLost-$24.732074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes1c9,050$72 inLost-$72.176097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes1c6,489$52 inLost-$51.9925413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes1c4,946$70 inLost-$702338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdadc…c323backed Yes1c3,180$45 inLost-$44.783511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes1c3,056$40 inLost-$40.245628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes1c3,000$24 inLost-$245718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes3c3,000$90 inLost-$902466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes2c2,830$47 inLost-$46.8912421.8%27 W · 97 L-0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,061$16 inLost-$15.791,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$10.488610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c1,489$10 inLost-$10.255535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1299…f6b1backed Yes1c1,410$10 inLost-$10.491513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-76.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes1c1,050$14 inLost-$13.653423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes2c845.41$20 inLost-$205813.8%8 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.