Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31c0c931c848dfb6a5495b70637568437e76bc360fe23872865c56c9dbb1e5ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,097,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $985,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,097,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a99…5309backed Yes | 2c | 236,143$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 201,309$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.85 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed Yes | 1c | 180,357$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…1924backed Yes | 0c | 116,858$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8c31backed Yes | 3c | 106,108$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 0c | 98,001$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 96,691$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7be…f3ecbacked Yes | 0c | 90,348$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed Yes | 0c | 89,858$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 66,564$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.12 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…edfbbacked Yes | 0c | 49,997$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…9aadbacked Yes | 0c | 37,921$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 4c | 35,300$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.23 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…7a99backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 32,540$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed Yes | 0c | 29,340$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…181dbacked Yes | 0c | 28,208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…1cb7backed Yes | 1c | 27,000$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25da…6e43backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 6c | 25,000$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…fb3dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,775$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5792…7731backed Yes | 1c | 20,219$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…c2c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,103$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed Yes | 1c | 20,092$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 2c | 20,045$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…171abacked Yes | 4c | 20,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…e0eebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…ca58backed Yes | 1c | 19,719$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,508$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 0c | 19,504$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 6c | 18,117$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…9ef3backed Yes | 1c | 18,098$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 11c | 15,567$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.26 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 7c | 15,000$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.53 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 7c | 14,700$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.06 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…e2a4backed Yes | 1c | 14,449$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,945$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 1c | 12,715$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…63fbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,550$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…5705backed Yes | 1c | 12,536$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…000ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,189$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…43f1backed Yes | 2c | 12,050$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Yes | 5c | 12,000$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.85 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Yes | 5c | 11,844$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…4ffebacked Yes | 0c | 11,335$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 5c | 10,910$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 6c | 10,908$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…f372backed Yes | 0c | 10,250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bd…3019backed Yes | 1c | 10,039$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 0c | 10,038$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec9…1018backed Yes | 0c | 10,021$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…6af2backed Yes | 0c | 10,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…b854backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…da55backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5798…1a60backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…3f21backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…4f9cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3df…e851backed Yes | 2c | 9,747$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…5181backed Yes | 7c | 9,528$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 0c | 8,512$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,420$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,339$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,686$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 7,646$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.05 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…48fbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…285abacked Yes | 1c | 7,211$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 15c | 7,205$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.14 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…0a3cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,997$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5c08backed Yes | 0c | 6,653$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…4bb4backed Yes | 1c | 6,578$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 12c | 6,418$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…6933backed Yes | 1c | 6,301$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,056$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 6c | 5,950$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.77 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 4c | 5,943$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a9…6571backed Yes | 1c | 5,872$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 9c | 5,746$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.26 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 6c | 5,724$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2124…d01abacked Yes | 2c | 5,607$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 1c | 5,531$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…abc2backed Yes | 2c | 5,392$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…99d3backed Yes | 2c | 5,380$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 5,379$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.28 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 0c | 5,363$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 3c | 5,174$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed Yes | 0c | 5,147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed Yes | 3c | 4,967$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,918$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…7a00backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…da3fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,697$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 4,436$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.25 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 3c | 4,300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 4,254$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.04 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.