Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f98a15cf10d4297c36571412d57c82ffc8ebf5d6ba05e62fa4055d5b84a7c80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,938,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,222,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,938,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 605 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a99…5309backed Yes | 2c | 374,496$8,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,763.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed Yes | 1c | 318,874$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…5aa2backed Yes | 1c | 180,158$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8c31backed Yes | 3c | 151,270$4,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,358.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…171abacked Yes | 3c | 140,888$4,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,020.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…43f1backed Yes | 2c | 117,952$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 116,932$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3df…e851backed Yes | 2c | 96,221$2,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 0c | 91,079$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…1924backed Yes | 2c | 82,642$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 0c | 80,473$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7be…f3ecbacked Yes | 0c | 79,820$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 1c | 73,287$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed Yes | 0c | 53,590$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed Yes | 0c | 50,764$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…59f0backed Yes | 3c | 49,932$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…edfbbacked Yes | 0c | 46,788$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 3c | 45,219$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 5c | 45,000$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…d410backed Yes | 3c | 44,753$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 6c | 40,638$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 2c | 40,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 0c | 39,826$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed Yes | 0c | 39,740$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 6c | 35,850$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…7a99backed Yes | 0c | 35,798$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…60fbbacked Yes | 0c | 34,327$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 5c | 32,830$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.75 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…4ffebacked Yes | 0c | 32,457$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 2c | 31,152$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…bb3fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 2c | 29,839$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 2c | 29,216$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 7c | 28,906$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.84 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25da…6e43backed Yes | 0c | 28,667$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 2c | 28,095$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 28,000$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…9ef3backed Yes | 3c | 26,866$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 24,385$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 24,086$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.01 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 4c | 23,310$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 5c | 22,751$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…4fd8backed Yes | 4c | 22,506$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…181dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,026$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…b854backed Yes | 0c | 19,780$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…a111backed Yes | 3c | 19,414$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…099fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,333$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 18,888$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.24 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…d962backed Yes | 4c | 18,766$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…faebbacked Yes | 0c | 18,760$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 3c | 18,717$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 5c | 18,577$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…000ebacked Yes | 5c | 18,023$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…0029backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…6af2backed Yes | 0c | 17,791$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…6933backed Yes | 1c | 17,201$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f6…0154backed Yes | 3c | 17,107$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 16,033$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.04 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Yes | 4c | 16,030$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.59 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…2d68backed Yes | 0c | 15,333$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 0c | 15,043$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…5705backed Yes | 1c | 14,968$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed Yes | 3c | 14,754$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Yes | 3c | 14,000$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7b16backed Yes | 2c | 13,802$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.07 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 5c | 13,700$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.99 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…0d9dbacked Yes | 13c | 13,563$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 3c | 13,410$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 19c | 13,372$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.58 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…530ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Yes | 8c | 13,084$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5792…7731backed Yes | 3c | 12,860$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed Yes | 1c | 12,824$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 2c | 12,297$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…4f9cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,217$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…6e84backed Yes | 2c | 12,134$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked Yes | 5c | 12,115$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 12,091$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…4bb4backed Yes | 4c | 11,107$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2124…d01abacked Yes | 2c | 11,034$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked Yes | 7c | 10,737$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.29 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 0c | 10,654$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed Yes | 2c | 10,299$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 10,265$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed Yes | 3c | 10,263$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…5181backed Yes | 2c | 10,079$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bd…3019backed Yes | 1c | 10,079$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…ca58backed Yes | 1c | 10,023$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…66a7backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…d4d9backed Yes | 3c | 9,927$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…abc2backed Yes | 2c | 9,877$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…fb3dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,526$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Yes | 8c | 9,438$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 1c | 9,324$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0163…cf86backed Yes | 4c | 9,251$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.