TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc363…9fd8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT3522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+782.8%+$1,734.43
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.71
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+75.2%+$375.22
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$488.84
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.16
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.25
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$2,185.44
Will Lee Byung-hun be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$105.21
Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$128.5
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+83.4%+$56.39
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$415
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$548.1
Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$855Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$855
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+68.1%+$388.39
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$189.05
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+142.5%+$926.41
Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$108.1
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$683Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$683.32
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,373Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,373.23
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+75.9%+$622.7
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,899Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,898.84
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,694Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,693.64
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$70.2
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$564Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$564.03
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,530Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,529.59
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.12
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$609.39
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,560Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$894
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$644.91
Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 2 Manchester United FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.53
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$324.93
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$57.72
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$194.25
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$242.4
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+270.4%+$530.71
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$277.5
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$464Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$261
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+566.7%+$1,287.75
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)backed Manchester United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$926Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$926.24
Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)backed Manchester United · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,210Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+203%+$2,455.78
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$189.81
Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)backed Manchester United · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$355.19
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+200.5%+$822.66
Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)backed Manchester United · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$250.6
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,412Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,411.78
Spread: Magic (-4.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+96.1%+$271.95
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$150
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.91
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$779Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+156.7%+$1,220.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,543Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+117.1%+$2,978.9
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 136.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$116.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NewJeans perform again in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$181.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$523Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+26.6%+$138.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$4,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,210.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Lopez vs. Stevensonbacked Lopez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$104.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$433.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.