TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,765,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,724,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,765,263 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 712 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Yes58c200,000$115,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,930.111030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes69c145,709$100,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,567.9914544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed No31c139,633$43,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,353.975054%27 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed No31c102,499$31,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,724.18940.4%36 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No42c95,958$40,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,865.1927750.9%141 W · 136 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No32c89,746$28,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,147.766,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No31c84,175$26,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,080.7530851.3%158 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No30c79,532$23,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,672.6318950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes69c79,337$54,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,742.7624846.8%116 W · 132 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Yes59c73,395$43,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,228.721861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No37c72,132$26,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,277.5321154.5%115 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed No42c55,555$23,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,333.0113829%40 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes67c52,554$35,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,291.531,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3411backed Yes69c51,045$35,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,374.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No32c50,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,999.9920140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes70c48,115$33,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,680.8218958.7%111 W · 78 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No42c45,731$19,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,551.5929253.4%156 W · 136 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No34c42,311$14,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,925.0115949.1%78 W · 81 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No30c37,888$11,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,521.3535941.5%149 W · 210 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes68c35,000$23,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,80031947.6%152 W · 167 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes69c31,699$21,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,895.281,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed No32c31,271$10,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,264.592661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+30.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed No42c30,088$12,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,451.976142.6%26 W · 35 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Yes69c30,077$20,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,752.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No57c29,648$16,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,743.084,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Yes25c26,669$6,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,781.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes70c20,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0009646.9%45 W · 51 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed No31c19,905$6,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,734.347147.9%34 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked No42c18,207$7,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,559.892839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44db…4950backed Yes70c17,138$11,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,968.0750%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No39c16,972$6,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,435.3710042%42 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes59c16,936$9,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,992.1818948.7%92 W · 97 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No32c16,797$5,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,440.1831944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No32c15,702$4,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,722.3114450.7%73 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed No30c15,598$4,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,971.222540%10 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Yes69c15,000$10,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3506445.3%29 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked No30c14,443$4,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,110.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked No31c13,050$4,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,004.510849.1%53 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Yes69c11,964$8,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,255.021040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc478…d2e2backed Yes71c10,927$7,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,725.764348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80016437.2%61 W · 103 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No34c8,079$2,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,372.4110236.3%37 W · 65 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed No31c7,847$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,414.391827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes68c7,159$4,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,839.1825551.8%132 W · 123 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No31c7,109$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,905.2610335%36 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed No43c7,066$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.6617745.8%81 W · 96 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Yes70c6,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Yes66c5,599$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.063647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4508531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No33c5,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,35079639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No32c5,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.8237054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed No31c4,933$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,403.7611838.1%45 W · 73 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed No32c4,691$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,192.9714254.2%77 W · 65 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed No32c4,000$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.997557.3%43 W · 32 L+9.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9919729.4%58 W · 139 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No31c3,709$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.351,00646.6%469 W · 537 L-20.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No31c3,666$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.75977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Yes70c3,657$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Yes69c3,597$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes61c3,500$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12520646.1%95 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa7…52b4backed Yes69c3,481$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4021040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No26c3,474$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.818259.3%108 W · 74 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes50c3,362$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.625836%93 W · 165 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Yes58c3,228$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.229946.5%46 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe045…c149backed No33c3,030$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.063850%19 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No32c3,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04024146.9%113 W · 128 L+21.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed No31c3,000$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0703060%18 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ad…6ed7backed No30c3,000$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.953941%16 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…c986backed Yes69c2,899$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No50c2,879$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.691,22440%490 W · 734 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No37c2,762$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.472,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Yes68c2,586$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.8511945.4%54 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db7…5c06backed Yes41c2,581$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05017635.8%63 W · 113 L-12.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9644…d03bbacked Yes68c2,500$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6951020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No43c2,500$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42535652.8%188 W · 168 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Yes61c2,493$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.795745.6%26 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Yes68c2,456$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.813850%19 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed No31c2,408$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.692133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes67c2,348$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.0453134.5%183 W · 348 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes68c2,332$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.8849254.9%270 W · 222 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No34c2,242$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.9211162.2%69 W · 42 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes65c2,159$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4006048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes70c2,143$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005841.4%24 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f6…15fbbacked Yes59c2,135$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.6220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked No31c2,100$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.9831053.2%165 W · 145 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes41c2,077$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8586435.9%23 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No32c2,073$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.3768026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Yes70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002552%13 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b8…aca8backed Yes74c1,969$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Yes66c1,948$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.539763.9%62 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2885…486cbacked No31c1,946$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.565431.5%17 W · 37 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes67c1,857$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.6656453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No31c1,733$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.487035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No32c1,700$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.9312042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00cf…5120backed Yes61c1,657$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes69c1,610$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1114447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f3…122ebacked Yes69c1,594$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…f7febacked Yes63c1,576$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No32c1,563$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.59749.5%48 W · 49 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de4…372abacked Yes59c1,537$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.