Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c9de7c10f6c844116abe7b47bd7c5dc4ca1c3da710813c02d3d388bc227f964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 12c | 8,405$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…9916backed Yes | 17c | 7,650$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 79c | 6,553$5,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.42 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 5,464$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.35 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 16c | 4,740$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.54 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 10c | 4,497$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.37 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…dcc1backed Yes | 12c | 4,452$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,246$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…55f9backed Yes | 17c | 2,617$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…d397backed Yes | 1c | 2,323$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…2af1backed Yes | 14c | 2,149$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,037$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,891$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.32 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…96d1backed Yes | 27c | 1,876$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 11c | 1,808$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed Yes | 11c | 1,748$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e23…61a8backed Yes | 13c | 1,601$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3464backed Yes | 17c | 1,328$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7e1bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,219$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…8f8fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,174$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,160$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…a87cbacked Yes | 13c | 985.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…82e0backed Yes | 12c | 890.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…0d0cbacked Yes | 14c | 877.43$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…389bbacked Yes | 12c | 767.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 15c | 757$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes | 40c | 755.13$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…b2afbacked Yes | 13c | 715.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…8471backed Yes | 12c | 688.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes | 14c | 670.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 24c | 594.73$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…5d44backed Yes | 11c | 593.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 18c | 590.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…5a73backed Yes | 5c | 532.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…4e2ebacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked Yes | 15c | 467.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 414.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 12c | 385.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 12c | 383.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…6accbacked Yes | 13c | 376.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 341$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 12c | 325$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 13c | 318.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 289.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 17c | 288.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…8001backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…105bbacked Yes | 11c | 259$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…34fcbacked Yes | 20c | 244.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…1815backed Yes | 12c | 240$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…1531backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 11c | 210.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 16c | 210$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…1717backed Yes | 12c | 201.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 194.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…4540backed Yes | 14c | 183.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb487…73a7backed Yes | 7c | 172.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd842…f7b1backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…40b2backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…5d15backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…b18fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…af3fbacked Yes | 13c | 109.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…64dabacked Yes | 16c | 107.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cf…f16bbacked Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 19c | 104.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…40bfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…77bdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…a7fdbacked Yes | 15c | 71.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…f734backed Yes | 17c | 66.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21de…cb92backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…2276backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…ce1ebacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…9781backed No | 79c | 53.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?this page
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.