Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf852ac4eeabed4f456a2805e5198bc944951f9a15ff6c9733f0cf5454fa33999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f33…5da5backed Yes | 9c | 28,984$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c8…72acbacked Yes | 3c | 5,363$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 5,003$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…586fbacked Yes | 14c | 3,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 7c | 2,047$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,751$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 16c | 1,581$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…7992backed Yes | 4c | 1,521$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 15c | 1,450$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…d808backed Yes | 5c | 1,251$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…e30cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,239$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 9c | 1,150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,060$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 3c | 982.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a17…2560backed Yes | 11c | 917.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 8c | 708.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 14c | 700$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 6c | 676.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 670.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 543.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 8c | 530.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 5c | 527.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 8c | 508.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 15c | 474$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…9bbdbacked Yes | 4c | 357.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 351.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 306$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…fa21backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…7975backed Yes | 7c | 276.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 271.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 271$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…3b17backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes | 15c | 208.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 17c | 180.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…8fc0backed Yes | 14c | 179.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 25c | 173.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…efd3backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 29c | 142.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…b18fbacked Yes | 15c | 130.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…cd66backed Yes | 17c | 117.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 42c | 113.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 11c | 104.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…0a61backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…4600backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 17c | 95.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 16c | 85.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 71.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked No | 27c | 54.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…3bccbacked No | 43c | 50.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?this page
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.