Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x661bd338d7caca6d0701360c27d4b43c832eba3856a8006640815273f1257140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 27c | 4,690$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.57 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 75c | 3,920$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.84 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 66c | 3,564$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,839$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.62 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 2,356$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 73c | 1,679$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.4 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,390$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…4914backed Yes | 23c | 1,379$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 7c | 1,238$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,207$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 22c | 1,095$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 5c | 861.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 12c | 650.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 618.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 603$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…9781backed No | 58c | 566.28$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked Yes | 7c | 539.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 38c | 536.28$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…b39dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 33c | 440$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 77c | 436.35$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 24c | 400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 380.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 72c | 361.15$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587d…f4b8backed Yes | 30c | 333.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 75c | 299.06$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 274.08$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…0bf8backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb1…44fbbacked Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 78c | 210.71$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 19c | 204.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 21c | 200.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c53…cba8backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 78c | 162.71$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d82cbacked Yes | 22c | 162.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…a0c7backed No | 78c | 142$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked No | 79c | 126.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 124.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 116.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 115.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd455…547bbacked Yes | 24c | 112.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…ea19backed Yes | 23c | 110.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 26c | 100.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…493ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 43c | 72.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cb9bbacked Yes | 48c | 36.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…6854backed Yes | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?this page
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.