Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9143e4e4a449229e3d63711df9ebc06c88993a402cea98cc0542197678250d43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,402$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.05 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…586fbacked Yes | 14c | 3,514$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 3,213$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 13c | 3,093$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 10c | 2,177$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 12c | 1,800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 77c | 1,793$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.39 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 1,746$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.27 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,568$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 10c | 1,382$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 11c | 981.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 11c | 879.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…d808backed Yes | 2c | 839.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…ae74backed Yes | 5c | 767.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 11c | 757.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…ff97backed Yes | 18c | 702.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked Yes | 19c | 583.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 3c | 557.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…6b34backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 464.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 439.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 38c | 430.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.17 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…3739backed Yes | 12c | 408.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…af8ebacked Yes | 11c | 350$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 337.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 11c | 317$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…119fbacked Yes | 21c | 285.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 251.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 20c | 245.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 19c | 205.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb1…44fbbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…17fbbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ade…932abacked Yes | 19c | 129.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 18c | 125.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…08c6backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 78c | 123.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 15c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 15c | 100.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…d8dbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…b424backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed Yes | 20c | 97.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 79c | 85.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 77c | 76.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 18c | 66.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d82cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?this page
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.