Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eff746919b5a4f793ba1da1f87107b5d6478de91c3cd76ab2f839325050b4b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 32c | 6,183$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 16c | 5,300$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 79c | 4,166$3,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.02 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,200$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2d…9857backed Yes | 10c | 2,777$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,695$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 20c | 2,641$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,302$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617e…940abacked Yes | 18c | 1,952$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 29c | 1,304$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.98 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…b7a5backed Yes | 13c | 1,140$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…d8dbbacked Yes | 22c | 939.89$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 8c | 774$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…4ad3backed Yes | 14c | 682.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…6b34backed Yes | 4c | 660.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 557.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 4c | 513.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 9c | 415.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…e30cbacked Yes | 13c | 402.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 402.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 392.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 14c | 358$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…28f9backed Yes | 23c | 287.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 17c | 279.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3c…cbe8backed Yes | 10c | 274.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…5fa4backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…92a9backed Yes | 9c | 219.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…c756backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…d571backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 111.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…eaeebacked Yes | 13c | 104.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…08c6backed Yes | 17c | 94.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 13c | 91.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 74c | 40.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 39.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan"?this page
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom"?No won
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.