TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5673…98fd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Lol, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.7
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.65
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+439.8%+$70.37
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73.53
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50.5
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$79.06
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+326.2%+$61.91
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+490.8%+$95.71
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+38.9%+$19.44
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$63
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$60.95
Will Mike Johnson vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+56%+$145.43
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$102
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+35.5%+$15.88
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12.62
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+210.9%+$25.31
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+53.8%+$80.77
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 23 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.09
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+56.3%+$15.75
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Brian Armstrong say "Tokenized Equity" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+107.1%+$14.48
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+55.3%+$8.29
Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+85.2%+$10.65
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$13.28
All 10 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+136.4%+$120.47
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+405.2%+$108.27
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$61
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$248.64
All 9 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+151.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+204.2%+$34.3
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+99.6%+$13.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+251.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+251.1%+$37.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+144.2%+$16.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$90.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Sunsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$89.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.