TailMyPicks
Market

World Politics · resolved market

Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,578,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,651,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,578,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,095 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee15…b6dbbacked No64c110,000$70,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,600333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a4…b5dcbacked Yes36c110,000$39,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x908f…7e43backed Yes53c100,021$53,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,011.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc5…91d7backed No47c100,021$47,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,011.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571c…1f49backed Yes32c90,000$28,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,800250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9889…3e00backed No68c89,980$61,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,793.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba75…5eedbacked Yes53c88,451$46,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,879.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…613dbacked No47c88,451$41,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,879.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe918…8009backed No43c72,119$31,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,107.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f4…d0e7backed Yes57c72,119$41,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,107.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes25c39,405$9,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,714.221241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes51c32,230$16,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,573.439334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes43c28,943$12,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,356.653336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6712…a5f0backed Yes23c22,347$5,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,139.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes55c21,899$11,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.074126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes61c21,752$13,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,288.574037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c21,037$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.733423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes47c20,080$9,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,533.0518036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a19…8179backed No9c19,912$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,061.51540%2 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick4cpaid+449.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b8d…ce3abacked No28c17,300$4,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,519.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+153.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf85…acc4backed Yes72c14,834$10,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,716.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes59c14,370$8,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,488.893336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes65c13,679$8,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,899.491741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d1b…2b5abacked No37c13,500$5,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,457.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+119.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes26c13,496$3,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.9611741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a4…6356backed Yes78c12,879$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes28c12,333$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.310331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No20c12,027$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,595.326883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes46c11,439$5,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,235.984450%22 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes61c11,399$7,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,006.27451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes49c10,544$5,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,141.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c10,413$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.244440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb30…5057backed Yes51c10,276$5,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,242.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9693…5224backed No49c10,276$5,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,240.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes49c10,002$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,904.15825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc945…5676backed Yes67c9,864$6,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,578.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes66c9,810$6,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,489.331435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes52c9,576$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,992475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7c…7546backed No45c9,423$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,182.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x592e…6b06backed Yes55c9,423$5,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,182.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c9,194$6,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,521.5954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes30c8,542$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.991711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ba…99dabacked No48c8,452$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,395.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0e…84d7backed Yes52c8,452$4,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,395.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes47c8,387$3,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,979.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes60c7,887$4,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.475728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes61c7,630$4,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,653.62040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed Yes74c7,386$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff10…7410backed Yes63c7,000$4,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,38210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed Yes2c6,907$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-51.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes50c6,861$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.2434726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc042…ea55backed Yes63c6,500$4,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,075.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed No47c6,449$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,429.431833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6d5…83f1backed Yes69c6,413$4,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,398.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes79c6,122$4,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,830.5413446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No53c6,086$3,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.395843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c5,982$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes59c5,963$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1eb…3471backed No77c5,870$4,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe28a…aef9backed Yes72c5,800$4,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,204.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x294b…931fbacked Yes72c5,800$4,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,193.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c56…adf0backed Yes72c5,700$4,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,121.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b0…ed4cbacked No77c5,505$4,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fc…8802backed No77c5,490$4,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eee…b34dbacked No77c5,482$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c75…7e0dbacked Yes77c5,462$4,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes79c5,334$4,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,235.5270%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked No25c5,200$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8147…4fbfbacked Yes24c5,000$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d1…e9c1backed Yes20c5,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+747.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c4,918$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,693.41,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked No7c4,809$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,486.95933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+99.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes10c4,777$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.538632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes36c4,717$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.695648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c1…c7a9backed Yes69c4,621$3,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes25c4,570$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.937317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes56c4,513$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.224247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes31c4,486$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.5312129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…4a06backed Yes72c4,067$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,929.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No25c3,904$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,910.8216612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes78c3,900$3,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.28540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+106.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Yes73c3,826$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.282050%10 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes55c3,692$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.494231%13 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3327…11debacked Yes60c3,676$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes27c3,518$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.312445.8%11 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.31per pick15cpaid+216.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0071…32dfbacked Yes79c3,457$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,74110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb6…92bebacked Yes72c3,379$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid+23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c7…c0e2backed Yes53c3,367$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.31933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes66c3,333$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.782030%6 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes46c3,309$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.4810928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x278c…8b06backed Yes46c3,296$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x207d…fb1bbacked Yes73c3,233$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf5…282fbacked Yes15c3,200$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes53c3,164$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.42326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d0c…7a46backed Yes62c3,153$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…3332backed Yes78c3,036$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf0…7dfabacked Yes66c3,026$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x542f…fa52backed Yes70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0408…061dbacked No6c2,974$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.08650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+319.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed Yes58c2,973$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.