TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e9f…91db

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
196
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT3828.9%11 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+145.2%+$48.43
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+214.6%+$96.38
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+124.5%+$29
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.13
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$30.63
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.02
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60.6
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$699Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$699.36
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$755.63
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+176.1%+$221.91
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+88.4%+$290.64
Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$198.45
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,246Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,246.04
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri?backed Piastri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+190.2%+$131.94
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli?backed Russell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+47.1%+$4.93
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+27%+$3.21
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$127.39
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$294.04
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$482.56
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+360.5%+$746.48
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$29.47
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$22.82
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$99
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$49.99
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+83.6%+$301.67
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT323.1%1 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-89.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14,674Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,674.18
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,217Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+238.4%+$5,283.46
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$788.08
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,280.96
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.58
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$891Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$891.37
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.31
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,471.81
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.63
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.66
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,782Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,781.55
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$921Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$921.29
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$667.1
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.11
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.65
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.48
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.85
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.02
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.31
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.95
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$383.67
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,029Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,029.47
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.61
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.89
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.29
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.81
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+105.3%+$149.88
Will monthly inflation be between 2.9% and 3.1% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+715.2%+$79.52
Will monthly inflation be between 2.3% and 2.5% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$265.06
Will monthly inflation be between 2.0% and 2.2% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$98.94
Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$202.85
Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+64.2%+$335.1
Will annual inflation increase by between 24% and 26.9% in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$17.13
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+108.9%+$75.58
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$44.78
Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$11.94
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$44.52
Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$53.28
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+56.3%+$35.16
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+87.6%+$203.93
Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.31
Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.4
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$20.23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.36
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.53
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+129.3%+$483.72
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$181.97
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.04
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.54
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.33
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+57%+$7.34
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.92
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.93
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$228.37
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.95
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.12
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+41.5%+$116.87
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$40.76
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.48
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.09
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.62
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$620.07
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.58
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$315.23
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+226.4%+$200.01
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.96
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+56.5%+$43.01
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+52.9%+$45.32
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.73
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.04
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.87
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.29
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+215%+$645.42
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.86
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.16
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.8
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+114.5%+$24.26
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$9,714Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$9,714.22
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$4,702Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+194.5%+$9,146.95
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,390Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$2,390.38
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$8,705Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+49%+$4,265.12
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$851Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+94.4%+$803.79
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.33
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-89.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$5,037Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+28.1%+$1,417.8
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$21.89
Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will anyone say "Trump" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.47
Will anyone say "Tariffs" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.94
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.87
Will anyone say "iPhone" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.14
Will anyone say "Apple" 50+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.9
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.46
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.33
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-55.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-64.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ParenseDeManos: Gabino Silva vs William Banksbacked Banks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$23.93
ParenseDeManos: Mariano Pérez vs Manuel Jovebacked Jove · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+89.5%+$11.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.97
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$136.04
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$716Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$715.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$288.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$494.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$244
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.