F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf75afb47250a1b26b659bfa6088d69cf4ac1f47faf1bd54710f4b73671c32a51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,024 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 24c | 10,322$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.65 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,814$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 77c | 2,951$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.11 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 74c | 2,022$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.56 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…f1bcbacked No | 80c | 1,554$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 80c | 1,268$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 23c | 1,099$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.41 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 76c | 905.46$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.97 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 79c | 887.78$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 78c | 809.99$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.1 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…116abacked Yes | 13c | 788.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…a488backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 76c | 599.99$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 591.23$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 75c | 484.05$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 443.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 26c | 416.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 75c | 392.74$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…9beabacked Yes | 31c | 356$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…e722backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 24c | 225$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 214.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…a77abacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 8c | 197.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 9c | 196.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 18c | 167.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 7c | 166.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 158.9$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 16c | 158$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 22c | 156.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 67c | 149.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 19c | 145.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 116.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…1b50backed Yes | 60c | 112.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 112.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 16c | 109.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 64c | 98.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…e0dbbacked Yes | 52c | 96.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 78c | 93.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…c322backed Yes | 22c | 90.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…1a3abacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5c…b693backed Yes | 25c | 79.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…4e02backed No | 55c | 79.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 70.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063e…f32bbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 74c | 63.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…0782backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…e87dbacked Yes | 25c | 55.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…fa25backed Yes | 24c | 53.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…f9e7backed Yes | 21c | 52.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b13…2c26backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 49.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d15…e663backed Yes | 24c | 47.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…8ff2backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 72c | 46.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked No | 66c | 42.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…c8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Yes | 44c | 38.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…365dbacked Yes | 47c | 37.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…6b74backed No | 76c | 37.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…b2debacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…ba4cbacked No | 79c | 30.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 66c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.