F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fe3e4d15b00fc26cf23f537eb971c82324d9fb07c03724c75d622248b17b93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 6,220$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.4 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 8c | 2,557$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.53 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 16c | 1,261$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab2…a2b7backed Yes | 8c | 1,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 7c | 440$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Yes | 18c | 308.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 306.6$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f8…d139backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 287$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 275.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 12c | 266.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 13c | 251$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 240.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…e0dbbacked Yes | 9c | 223.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 16c | 221.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5980…92d2backed Yes | 46c | 219.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 12c | 208.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…a6e0backed Yes | 15c | 206.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 17c | 206.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…1b50backed Yes | 52c | 206.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 73c | 159.63$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…af4bbacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 141.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…be44backed Yes | 16c | 133.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 11c | 126.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 20c | 126.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…4073backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 16c | 67.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255b…3043backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.