F1 · resolved market
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bbce320aa47a3b9efce00a32324e74508df043d1707cae41dded8186ddf3eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,512 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,829$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…a3e8backed Yes | 15c | 3,201$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 2,094$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,870$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…4073backed Yes | 3c | 1,618$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 8c | 909.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 879.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 874.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 9c | 734.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 4c | 686.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 3c | 598.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 6c | 589$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 9c | 558.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 4c | 526$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 5c | 523.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Yes | 5c | 505.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e6…29c7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 419.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…1fc0backed Yes | 9c | 402.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 6c | 336$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 280.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5c…b693backed Yes | 7c | 278.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…682cbacked Yes | 10c | 162.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Yes | 14c | 155.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 10c | 145.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 10c | 130.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Yes | 14c | 104.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.