F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x885e5d7f349230db329c1d2aa43c5730b24de809d58cb47960069573c051b7ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,505 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 7c | 5,020$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.38 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,566$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.48 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 15c | 1,381$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Yes | 7c | 1,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 3c | 765.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…e722backed Yes | 7c | 718.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e6…29c7backed Yes | 4c | 671.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Yes | 13c | 408.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 13c | 371.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 11c | 368.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb8…3236backed Yes | 12c | 358.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 350.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 307.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 12c | 306.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…4073backed Yes | 9c | 269.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 268.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 15c | 256.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 10c | 198.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 184.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 7c | 179.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 10c | 144.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…1fc0backed Yes | 15c | 132.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…8ff2backed Yes | 15c | 130.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…1a3abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…0b30backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10f…c7dfbacked Yes | 11c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…55f8backed Yes | 9c | 105.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde3a…a787backed Yes | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…0b89backed Yes | 16c | 62.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.