Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c0face7dc9c4b2178cd61cbe5596c5096f890fd460c3a2be9b6691027c1c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 7c | 20,250$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.15 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 5,077$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,485$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.3 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 8c | 2,771$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.78 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 18c | 1,812$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.44 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,762$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 6c | 883$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 32c | 830.91$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.46 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 8c | 810.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 3c | 694.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 20c | 664.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 662.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ca…1d4bbacked Yes | 7c | 634.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 4c | 569.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 534.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 22c | 522.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 10c | 484.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked Yes | 29c | 472.08$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…8cf4backed Yes | 28c | 465.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 10c | 454.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 7c | 441.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 8c | 438.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 399.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 3c | 349.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 7c | 333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…0e8dbacked Yes | 6c | 331.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…16c1backed Yes | 6c | 309.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 284.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 27c | 284.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 9c | 251$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…458cbacked Yes | 11c | 241.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 65c | 238.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 11c | 231.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 6c | 221.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 70c | 206.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…899dbacked Yes | 9c | 190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 22c | 168.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 15c | 167.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 9c | 166.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 38c | 157.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 132.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 76c | 131.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 23c | 112.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 76c | 109.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 19c | 107.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…c6aebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bd…648bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…8530backed No | 67c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes | 24c | 71.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 69c | 52.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea7…e7a8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…7176backed Yes | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.