TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$264,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6902…678cbacked No1c9,290$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.792650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes60c9,173$5,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.877354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No38c6,968$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.4621634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No0c6,874$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.912520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f41…a496backed Yes65c6,358$4,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+107.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No36c6,149$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.857458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes34c4,844$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,173.710950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed No44c4,753$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1002152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed No47c4,573$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes62c4,559$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.961952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No41c4,052$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.9521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No1c3,971$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8718516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes62c3,812$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.997167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No21c3,665$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.0511428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes63c3,318$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.333444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc1…9a12backed No6c3,250$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes64c3,182$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.3141238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6f…482cbacked No58c3,121$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c2,969$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.383989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes59c2,836$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.91540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No60c2,721$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x608c…a8ddbacked No43c2,370$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes43c2,359$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.728736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes63c2,304$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.881827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No46c2,209$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.733554.3%19 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes69c1,936$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.831931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick57cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes41c1,914$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.0214230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No43c1,901$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.423262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes66c1,888$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.271735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No40c1,807$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.9311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes51c1,754$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.848433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes57c1,705$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.4119435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No39c1,591$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61711936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No38c1,590$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.594673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No70c1,574$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.6618445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes61c1,418$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.4513145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e27…4e9ebacked Yes65c1,406$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.17650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No57c1,389$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.3717850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes65c1,343$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.184946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f89…d53dbacked Yes53c1,247$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No40c1,214$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.436230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No46c1,200$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No53c1,189$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.155451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes51c1,165$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.3137844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked No37c1,100$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.941533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked No35c1,100$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3833132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No65c1,099$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.127638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes68c1,077$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.852231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No33c1,065$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.852470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+46.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8083…4a0bbacked No6c1,060$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked Yes54c1,052$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.95438.9%21 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ccf…34e6backed No18c1,050$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No32c1,033$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.1621022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda8…a833backed No3c1,014$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed Yes54c1,000$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.891060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No74c999.99$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.992147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No55c999.99$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.991540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No41c998.53$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.934837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes44c962.17$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.219348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked No44c959.35$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.152245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4667…ba10backed No38c950.78$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4655…4825backed No29c948.5$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef85…f2b9backed Yes63c922.11$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+54.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes63c899.99$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3331546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes55c898$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.141070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked No37c883.29$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes60c820.56$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.389248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes60c813.91$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.275961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No25c810.49$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.725736.8%21 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa43f…2972backed No25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa9a…de87backed Yes43c769.98$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.392268.2%15 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+73.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No69c750$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.3615155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes52c746.77$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.2956733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed No57c719.72$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.841323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No52c718.87$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.52650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No39c706$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes53c705.88$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.825326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No26c704.76$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.75527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No41c703.22$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3214742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No48c699.99$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x197c…b3debacked Yes44c680.45$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ca…b890backed No15c673.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No24c665.61$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.957473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No26c662.45$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.688517.6%15 W · 70 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked No51c625.68$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.461631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-55.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes43c625.2$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.0233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19bb…a23dbacked Yes61c598.32$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed Yes39c597.8$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed No26c596$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a98…feb7backed Yes44c581.1$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes35c579.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No58c555.95$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.1217452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes57c553.53$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9818746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No35c550$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.85341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No20c533$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.263348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes44c526$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.164940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ee0…41bfbacked Yes60c523.87$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No40c517.87$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2077338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No61c517.46$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.2111031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.