Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3619333c56ec53413c25a0f21bf1bd64f2c5c4d0dcf006d8c45ea62ad9ae4d1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 1c | 9,290$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 60c | 9,173$5,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,711.87 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 38c | 6,968$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.46 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 0c | 6,874$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Yes | 65c | 6,358$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 36c | 6,149$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.85 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 34c | 4,844$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.7 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed No | 44c | 4,753$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c779backed No | 47c | 4,573$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 62c | 4,559$2,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 41c | 4,052$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.95 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 1c | 3,971$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 3,812$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.99 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 21c | 3,665$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.05 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed Yes | 63c | 3,318$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.33 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed No | 6c | 3,250$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,182$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.31 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked No | 58c | 3,121$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,969$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 59c | 2,836$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 60c | 2,721$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.6 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…a8ddbacked No | 43c | 2,370$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,359$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.72 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 63c | 2,304$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 46c | 2,209$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.73 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 69c | 1,936$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.83 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 57cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 41c | 1,914$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.02 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 43c | 1,901$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.42 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 66c | 1,888$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 40c | 1,807$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.93 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 51c | 1,754$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.84 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,705$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.41 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 39c | 1,591$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 38c | 1,590$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.59 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 70c | 1,574$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.66 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,418$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.45 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…4e9ebacked Yes | 65c | 1,406$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 57c | 1,389$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.37 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,343$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…d53dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,247$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 40c | 1,214$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.43 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 46c | 1,200$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 53c | 1,189$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.15 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 51c | 1,165$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.31 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked No | 37c | 1,100$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 35c | 1,100$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 65c | 1,099$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.12 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 68c | 1,077$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 33c | 1,065$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.85 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…4a0bbacked No | 6c | 1,060$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,052$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.9 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed No | 18c | 1,050$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 1,033$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.16 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda8…a833backed No | 3c | 1,014$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 55c | 999.99$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 41c | 998.53$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.93 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 44c | 962.17$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.2 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 44c | 959.35$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…ba10backed No | 38c | 950.78$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4655…4825backed No | 29c | 948.5$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…f2b9backed Yes | 63c | 922.11$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 63c | 899.99$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes | 55c | 898$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…436dbacked No | 37c | 883.29$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 60c | 820.56$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.38 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 60c | 813.91$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.27 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 25c | 810.49$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.72 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…2972backed No | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 43c | 769.98$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.39 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 69c | 750$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.36 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 746.77$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.29 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 57c | 719.72$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 52c | 718.87$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 39c | 706$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.26 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 53c | 705.88$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.82 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 26c | 704.76$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 41c | 703.22$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.32 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 699.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…b3debacked Yes | 44c | 680.45$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…b890backed No | 15c | 673.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 24c | 665.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 26c | 662.45$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked No | 51c | 625.68$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 43c | 625.2$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.02 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…a23dbacked Yes | 61c | 598.32$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed Yes | 39c | 597.8$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 26c | 596$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…feb7backed Yes | 44c | 581.1$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes | 35c | 579.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 58c | 555.95$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.12 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 57c | 553.53$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.98 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 35c | 550$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 20c | 533$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 44c | 526$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.16 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…41bfbacked Yes | 60c | 523.87$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 40c | 517.87$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 61c | 517.46$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.21 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.