Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90ef8fbcb380dac4c8b475a9bb157cba72984fa0eada1e911c02b9f2498ea841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 35c | 7,605$2,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.49 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes | 53c | 6,684$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,560.66 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 36c | 3,398$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.86 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 15c | 2,960$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.91 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 34c | 2,877$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.33 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 60c | 2,571$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.87 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 26c | 2,287$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.71 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 36c | 2,113$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.56 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 72c | 2,072$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.41 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 65c | 1,909$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.35 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 58c | 1,759$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…1cedbacked No | 58c | 1,687$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 65c | 1,373$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.31 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 1,255$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.93 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 51c | 1,150$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.95 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 52c | 1,106$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 55c | 1,042$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 48c | 1,032$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.85 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 39c | 1,016$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.33 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed No | 57c | 970.17$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.11 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64eb…364abacked Yes | 53c | 936.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…6311backed Yes | 49c | 931.28$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 39c | 920.6$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.81 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 65c | 900$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 70c | 878$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 44c | 824.84$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.95 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 62c | 792.63$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.14 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 36c | 776.76$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 59c | 758.62$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.94 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 23c | 754.95$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.26 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 37c | 750.21$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.53 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked No | 68c | 735.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 60c | 732.75$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 32c | 729.91$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…4e2ebacked No | 69c | 717$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…6cf5backed No | 71c | 700.98$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 57c | 685.34$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.7 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 30c | 666.21$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed No | 64c | 659.6$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.77 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 30c | 656.88$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 36c | 621.8$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 75c | 605.23$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.49 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 48c | 595.98$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 39c | 548$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 39c | 547.98$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 25c | 530.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 22c | 529.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 38c | 516.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.13 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 65c | 419.52$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 39c | 405$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 335.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 66c | 329$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 37c | 310.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…0d06backed Yes | 15c | 310$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 67c | 310$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 34c | 300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…4e9ebacked No | 72c | 294$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 34c | 293.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 45c | 285.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…d069backed Yes | 36c | 275.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 51c | 263.7$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed Yes | 39c | 259.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 48c | 254.58$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbc…799fbacked Yes | 28c | 250.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a5…8b68backed Yes | 36c | 248.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 33c | 244.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed No | 70c | 244.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 60c | 235.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 49c | 231$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 77c | 228.21$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked No | 56c | 223.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed No | 52c | 218.36$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 210.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…482ebacked Yes | 38c | 201.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 65c | 200.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…89b6backed Yes | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 191.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked No | 55c | 187.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 37c | 184.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 34c | 183.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 17c | 182$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…a6b3backed No | 68c | 180$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 67c | 179.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…a8dcbacked No | 79c | 172.21$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 24c | 170$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 70c | 169.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 72c | 165.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 62c | 162.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked No | 57c | 159.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…a313backed No | 63c | 158.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.