Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb0858cfd7d405fc234df1f34de8926a983d5750c50155c7515520af30374bc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c6…0ea4backed No | 2c | 43,197$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 47c | 7,548$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581.55 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…31cebacked No | 2c | 7,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 47c | 5,930$2,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 54c | 5,043$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.63 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 52c | 3,974$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.48 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed No | 8c | 3,706$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 3,303$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.85 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 43c | 3,213$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.85 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 64c | 3,081$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 70c | 2,910$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 76c | 2,605$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.15 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 7c | 2,454$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…f029backed Yes | 58c | 2,424$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 61c | 2,414$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.23 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed No | 58c | 2,391$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.85 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 2,371$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.68 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 48c | 2,354$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.85 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…e14abacked Yes | 75c | 2,338$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…1cedbacked No | 43c | 2,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 3c | 2,300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 53c | 2,114$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 53c | 2,070$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,957$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.49 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,926$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.16 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 32c | 1,796$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.05 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 50c | 1,746$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 62c | 1,682$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.42 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,633$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 70c | 1,599$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.59 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 56c | 1,484$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.98 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…269bbacked No | 35c | 1,389$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 70c | 1,371$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…4e9ebacked No | 38c | 1,322$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 39c | 1,249$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.58 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 55c | 1,211$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.71 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 48c | 1,194$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.37 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 1,090$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 7c | 1,084$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…1e59backed No | 2c | 1,082$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 57c | 992.62$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.27 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 37c | 967.82$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 955.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 56c | 939.25$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.25 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed No | 39c | 929.05$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…f649backed No | 37c | 904.32$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed No | 48c | 901.95$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 60c | 892.29$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.13 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 53c | 867.9$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.1 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 56c | 775.78$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.48 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 56c | 765.36$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.13 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 22c | 764.29$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 762.02$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.29 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…6960backed Yes | 60c | 758.7$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 45c | 752.03$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.89 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 42c | 749.63$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed No | 42c | 742$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.47 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 28c | 740$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 63c | 736.45$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.34 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 52c | 713.91$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.23 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 49c | 711.39$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 58c | 693.91$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 683.3$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.92 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 661.58$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.21 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 51c | 652.8$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.45 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 42c | 624.86$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.76 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…6ab4backed No | 21c | 620$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 600.14$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.13 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 44c | 591.96$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.02 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 55c | 589.48$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.75 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 71c | 579.24$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.38 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 50c | 570$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 56c | 550.9$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…f21bbacked Yes | 73c | 550.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 3c | 541.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 72c | 511.2$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 509.97$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.22 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…af2dbacked No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 31c | 500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed Yes | 59c | 500$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed Yes | 41c | 499.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed No | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed Yes | 48c | 498.44$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 51c | 497.9$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.87 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 57c | 491.4$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…9689backed No | 44c | 484.37$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 484.13$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.71 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked No | 36c | 483.04$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 64c | 470.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 47c | 460$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.92 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 63c | 446.37$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.99 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 28c | 434$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.36 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 68c | 420$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 60c | 399.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 67c | 398.05$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 44c | 394.11$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 391.07$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 52c | 379.92$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.