Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e5219af7f980cbd6fd8d4fd4233bfead6f2c0cc8aedfa95b0fdf9268ec4acd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,094,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $962,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,094,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a45…0876backed No | 2c | 121,605$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc659…389dbacked No | 0c | 106,024$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e46…7e28backed No | 1c | 65,884$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9693backed No | 0c | 52,216$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 0c | 29,439$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed No | 0c | 23,475$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 3c | 20,597$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.69 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 24c | 11,396$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.14 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 10,667$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…7709backed No | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…2d20backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…4898backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 3c | 9,606$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.34 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 36c | 7,208$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,595.53 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 1c | 6,110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…fbc2backed No | 1c | 5,691$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 12c | 5,613$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.29 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 7c | 5,587$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.89 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 1c | 5,543$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…46bbbacked No | 8c | 5,271$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked No | 0c | 5,086$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 50c | 4,235$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 1c | 4,139$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 4,127$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,892.45 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 6c | 4,100$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked No | 36c | 3,980$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.31 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 15c | 3,855$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.37 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 61c | 3,742$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.59 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 3c | 3,412$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 28c | 3,346$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.97 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 5c | 3,269$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…4535backed No | 3c | 3,140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 28c | 2,772$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.91 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed No | 19c | 2,652$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 6c | 2,592$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 7c | 2,580$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…4a0bbacked No | 4c | 2,578$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 2,551$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed No | 2c | 2,550$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…a8dcbacked No | 12c | 2,506$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 7c | 2,493$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.72 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 4c | 2,327$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed No | 13c | 2,237$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.22 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 17c | 2,236$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.81 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed No | 14c | 2,208$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 7c | 2,174$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.92 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked No | 1c | 2,156$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 64c | 2,125$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.37 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 10c | 2,032$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 38c | 2,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed No | 6c | 1,931$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…1cedbacked No | 8c | 1,900$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…f817backed No | 2c | 1,887$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 4c | 1,813$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…220ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,797$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 5c | 1,777$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 37c | 1,725$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 47c | 1,713$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.81 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked No | 6c | 1,648$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…e095backed No | 7c | 1,600$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 2c | 1,571$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed No | 13c | 1,518$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.86 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…ec71backed No | 7c | 1,514$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…5bffbacked No | 12c | 1,487$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 9c | 1,404$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 7c | 1,400$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64eb…364abacked Yes | 56c | 1,347$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked No | 11c | 1,319$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…cd9fbacked No | 8c | 1,287$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 11c | 1,232$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed No | 3c | 1,194$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…be28backed No | 4c | 1,168$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 1,140$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…59a7backed No | 9c | 1,135$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked No | 2c | 1,123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed5…1cecbacked No | 5c | 1,122$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…86e8backed No | 59c | 1,109$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked No | 16c | 1,060$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 59c | 1,053$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.87 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 1c | 1,051$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…2276backed No | 1c | 1,049$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 29c | 1,012$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.57 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed No | 6c | 1,002$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…66b2backed No | 9c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…da0abacked No | 8c | 1,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked No | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 3c | 973.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 4c | 944$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 46c | 927.58$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.87 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 56c | 893.72$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.59 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 12c | 864.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 69c | 860.07$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.65 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 36c | 847$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.51 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…c2d6backed No | 12c | 805.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…563dbacked No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 24c | 781.58$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.84 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Vietnam in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.