TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8ac6…66b2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 57 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT2937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-40.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,099
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$330
Colombia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$234
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$121.6
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,935Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,935
Argentina to win the second half?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$615Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$614.99
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.8
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.4
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$116
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.8
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$171
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$100
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$197
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$96
Croatia leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
England leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Portugal leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$93.78
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.99
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Uruguay leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$103.99
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$40.99
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.39
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.4
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$31.43
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 16-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$133.74
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+30%+$11.55
Will Solana dip to $60 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$213
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.9%+$485
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$266
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$160
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$813
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$990Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$989.63
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$600
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$209.9
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$73.2
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+74.6%+$406
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+66.6%+$94.73
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.88
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$98
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$90
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+168.7%+$199.13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
All 12 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+191.3%+$144.68
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.9
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+225.6%+$485
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$327.36
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$245
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$253.07
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+47.5%+$80.5
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$37.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.