Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154e475310cf9c71139fef75bd90f90bfc6b14f431eaa20f864a21e36d2cf2ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $491,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $400,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1014…db07backed Yes | 35c | 23,710$8,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 6c | 16,260$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.2 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 8c | 15,356$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.35 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Yes | 40c | 14,781$5,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,912.29 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 29c | 13,900$4,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,013.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…d322backed Yes | 56c | 7,643$4,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 36c | 7,000$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.99 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…b62ebacked No | 64c | 6,172$3,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 60c | 5,758$3,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…bf13backed Yes | 14c | 5,697$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129f…ca97backed Yes | 46c | 5,553$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 25c | 5,351$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f064backed Yes | 33c | 5,263$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 30c | 5,197$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 36c | 5,196$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked Yes | 33c | 4,975$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 35c | 4,724$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,720$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.63 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 72c | 4,312$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.14 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…3bb2backed Yes | 33c | 4,287$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 47c | 3,773$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 37c | 3,649$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…ea63backed Yes | 32c | 3,550$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 47c | 3,318$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 6c | 3,217$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…7294backed Yes | 32c | 3,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc211…d061backed Yes | 33c | 3,022$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…61dfbacked No | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked No | 64c | 2,982$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…fe19backed No | 70c | 2,839$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 77c | 2,592$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 31c | 2,568$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…0f95backed Yes | 14c | 2,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 2,365$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.69 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…f348backed No | 47c | 2,319$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 34c | 2,187$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 29c | 2,097$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 12c | 2,045$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…3743backed Yes | 30c | 2,007$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,960$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 53c | 1,931$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.8 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,922$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 30c | 1,879$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.73 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Yes | 20c | 1,836$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…c7a9backed Yes | 44c | 1,817$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,801$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.13 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307b…3bd2backed Yes | 25c | 1,801$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Yes | 32c | 1,730$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…200bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,600$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 38c | 1,563$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 33c | 1,505$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 47c | 1,503$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…72febacked Yes | 32c | 1,484$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…b471backed Yes | 44c | 1,458$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…cc72backed No | 65c | 1,355$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…fe90backed Yes | 23c | 1,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…23f6backed Yes | 31c | 1,251$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,160$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…df78backed Yes | 28c | 1,152$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Yes | 13c | 1,150$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…d64dbacked No | 75c | 1,104$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…08b7backed Yes | 30c | 1,100$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 49c | 1,092$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.05 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…29f0backed Yes | 41c | 1,085$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,070$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…a4e2backed Yes | 55c | 1,061$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 1,051$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 31c | 1,040$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.79 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed No | 70c | 1,024$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 59c | 1,022$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…8cf5backed Yes | 54c | 1,013$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 948.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…ed6fbacked Yes | 30c | 946.72$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…b95dbacked Yes | 32c | 939.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…dac6backed Yes | 33c | 926.2$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 900.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed Yes | 25c | 900$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 1c | 899.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 32c | 882$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 37c | 878.16$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…6facbacked No | 60c | 831.67$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 34c | 809.3$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…f1f3backed Yes | 32c | 800$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed No | 72c | 792.54$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…941dbacked Yes | 29c | 751.39$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 14c | 746$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…6ee0backed Yes | 30c | 736.67$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…ef45backed Yes | 15c | 732.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 25c | 699.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 47c | 691.45$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.29 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d82dbacked Yes | 31c | 685.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 22c | 664$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…3732backed Yes | 30c | 658.1$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?this page
- Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Yes won
- Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.