TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$659,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$544,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,104 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a1c…970abacked Yes3c32,278$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd703…b62ebacked Yes3c19,492$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.731050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes1c19,209$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.38714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c18,630$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.512313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes3c17,510$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1af…f1a7backed Yes4c14,202$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+45.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes0c13,500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7911631%36 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes1c8,035$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.186555.4%36 W · 29 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes3c7,852$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.943330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db0…c7cabacked Yes2c7,627$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.92520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes0c7,062$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293010%3 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+264.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes2c6,695$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.121127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ee…9c50backed Yes2c5,477$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.31812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,173$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes3c4,271$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.461513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b0…7a26backed Yes5c3,896$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38d…ac55backed Yes0c3,711$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2677…7feebacked Yes5c3,695$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c3,457$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.990%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…f06abacked Yes5c3,183$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…25cdbacked Yes5c3,172$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dc…33a7backed Yes5c3,119$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ad…e8c0backed Yes2c2,927$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x422b…55f2backed Yes5c2,902$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x494d…92d8backed Yes5c2,821$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…6facbacked Yes1c2,755$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-76.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…416bbacked Yes5c2,662$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2074…188bbacked Yes5c2,629$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5452…1c49backed Yes5c2,535$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…7a8ebacked Yes5c2,490$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes3c2,478$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.293531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a9…e623backed Yes5c2,401$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9f…134fbacked Yes5c2,363$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b1…a529backed Yes5c2,268$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5180…23dbbacked Yes5c2,254$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4abd…0b21backed Yes5c2,214$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759c…c1cdbacked Yes5c2,195$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa114…bd0abacked Yes5c2,168$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c2,125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…d43fbacked Yes5c2,115$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes3c2,102$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.321533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x639d…76ddbacked Yes5c2,037$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202313%3 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ac…5fadbacked Yes5c1,859$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9816…cc22backed Yes3c1,841$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d8…c9c2backed Yes5c1,827$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,793$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.79214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-81.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…899dbacked Yes2c1,762$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes4c1,742$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.127441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2905…2affbacked Yes5c1,716$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742a…b5e4backed Yes3c1,629$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x856f…d64dbacked Yes3c1,597$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06b…d199backed Yes5c1,547$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4751…3609backed Yes5c1,536$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfd…545cbacked Yes3c1,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…174cbacked Yes5c1,492$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc522…2c30backed Yes5c1,441$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…6895backed Yes5c1,426$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf770…b9afbacked Yes5c1,413$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b57…fdd1backed Yes5c1,394$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…be04backed Yes5c1,394$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f0…4938backed Yes5c1,374$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c6d…66b7backed Yes5c1,371$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad4b…727dbacked Yes5c1,331$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3eb…37f1backed Yes5c1,243$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…d3bcbacked Yes5c1,241$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4336…d9aabacked Yes5c1,239$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f16…b5b9backed Yes4c1,184$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76bf…a028backed Yes5c1,180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes3c1,160$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.282045%9 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes3c1,160$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42e…f1cebacked Yes5c1,139$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa7…295fbacked Yes5c1,128$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9a…308cbacked Yes5c1,034$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes3c1,010$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.33358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd9…a92abacked Yes5c926$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf62…fcf0backed Yes5c911$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68f…e9f6backed Yes5c889$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes3c790.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8640…6e8cbacked Yes5c775$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714b…cf00backed Yes5c759$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8968…d38fbacked Yes5c738$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…bb85backed Yes5c730$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5782…54a9backed Yes5c718$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c4…a54abacked Yes5c715$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ab…bf17backed Yes5c712$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e3…a569backed Yes5c709$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Yes3c670.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd3…5d5fbacked Yes5c668$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d12…0fa7backed Yes3c662.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+116.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedcd…3e7bbacked Yes5c637$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb50b…0ef2backed Yes5c627$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0b…9cb5backed Yes5c626$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe10…95dcbacked Yes3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad59…345dbacked Yes5c581$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c569.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe5d…5652backed Yes5c566$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaefb…219ebacked Yes5c560$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b78…ec29backed Yes4c534$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb9…d8dabacked Yes3c532.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+71.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.