Chess · resolved market
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ed6b6e0b1866ea918d3adcbd1e2f5e2f3ed96e3c3fb68d129ec2ce2dc425969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $350,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $350,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4595…515bbacked Yes | 0c | 57,030$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19c…f16bbacked Yes | 2c | 26,844$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 0c | 16,845$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 16,402$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.42 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 3c | 10,993$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…958dbacked Yes | 19c | 10,735$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…9c50backed Yes | 3c | 10,140$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3232…9001backed Yes | 2c | 9,744$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 1c | 7,085$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfd…545cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,047$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 4,868$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…f1a7backed Yes | 2c | 4,636$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,515$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…c061backed Yes | 3c | 3,722$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 2c | 3,648$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Yes | 2c | 3,426$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 3,146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…afc5backed Yes | 3c | 3,055$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,986$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,976$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…d43fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,525$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…95c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,519$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…504fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,426$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,251$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e0…4815backed Yes | 3c | 2,208$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,075$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…d64dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,979$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…334fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,976$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 2c | 1,948$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…d9aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,915$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166b…962abacked Yes | 3c | 1,853$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…fe1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,771$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…76a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,738$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…6facbacked Yes | 2c | 1,706$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…dddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Yes | 2c | 1,368$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 1c | 1,343$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e5…857fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,158$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3a…6e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…7eedbacked Yes | 3c | 1,043$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…d389backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8201…f97fbacked Yes | 3c | 976$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 2c | 945.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…4d24backed Yes | 2c | 900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 3c | 821.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…5874backed Yes | 1c | 809.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 799.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 2c | 661.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…5b41backed Yes | 2c | 568.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…8d6bbacked Yes | 3c | 563$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…2de1backed Yes | 3c | 484$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdf…44debacked Yes | 3c | 402$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…ef84backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…8bc1backed Yes | 3c | 346.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 37c | 108$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?this page
- Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Yes won
- Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.