TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5b26…501d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
129
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Chess at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5324.5%13 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$129
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.84
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$312
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.3
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.12
France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.25
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+236.1%+$106.64
Norway vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$19.88
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.05
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Mexico vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+129.4%+$64.68
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$44.52
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$35.22
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$352.1
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+91.6%+$239
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.61
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$119.79
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.9
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+182%+$449.74
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+64.8%+$118
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$527.38
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$62
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.73
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
All 20 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-86.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Chess — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.88
Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.63
Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.75
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.7
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$380.34
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$503.63
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.1
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$659Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$658.65
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-11 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-09 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.36
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.42
Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.07
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.16
Will Jiner Zhu win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Women?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+151.8%+$229.04
Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.84
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.97
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.89
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-03-31 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.27
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+225.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+1,530%+$265.66
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.34
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.71
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+774.2%+$88.59
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.14
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.29
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$122.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+89%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick16cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+151.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.11
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+403.5%+$443.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.