Commodities · resolved market
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dec0ddb49e5b4c025ee04135a4e1c99c47cb47e12113056f84f41979fc4e4de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $464,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $532,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $464,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 7c | 37,875$2,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.54 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 28,597$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.17 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 22,956$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.17 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 4c | 16,000$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.47 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 11,304$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.38 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…2342backed No | 78c | 8,000$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…b994backed No | 78c | 7,197$5,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.53 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.55 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 76c | 5,842$4,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.8 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 23c | 5,323$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 23c | 4,932$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.45 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 16c | 4,184$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 22c | 4,088$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.47 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 10c | 3,782$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.93 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 5c | 3,651$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…29ddbacked Yes | 19c | 3,294$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 13c | 2,991$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.6 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 79c | 2,881$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.1 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 2,767$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 2,607$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…b1a0backed Yes | 9c | 2,495$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,414$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 2,383$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 75c | 1,900$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 14c | 1,900$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 9c | 1,883$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.27 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked No | 79c | 1,816$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.17 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 6c | 1,812$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 16c | 1,720$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 1,714$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.83 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 1,588$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 1,585$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,515$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,471$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Yes | 4c | 1,204$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 24c | 1,063$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.16 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…8753backed No | 79c | 1,047$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ed…0aedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…d6abbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 28c | 937.38$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 854.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 29c | 846.65$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.33 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 6c | 838$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 8c | 801.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 10c | 799.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 9c | 790.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 3c | 784.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 15c | 765.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…6f64backed Yes | 42c | 759$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 74c | 750$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 33c | 727$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.02 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 701.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 697.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 68c | 690$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 676.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 30c | 655.88$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 654$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 15c | 635$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 25c | 600.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…a15cbacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 12c | 595.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 9c | 593.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 591$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed Yes | 23c | 588$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed No | 63c | 581.34$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 15c | 559.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 553.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84b…55e1backed Yes | 18c | 529.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 80c | 525.37$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f95…7821backed No | 75c | 523.07$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.07 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked Yes | 4c | 496.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed Yes | 29c | 472.39$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 20c | 471.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 451.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 12c | 436.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 19c | 428.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed Yes | 27c | 424.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 44c | 415$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 12c | 402.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 73c | 398.48$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Yes | 26c | 385.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 33c | 370.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes | 43c | 347.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 19c | 336$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed No | 63c | 319.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…a183backed Yes | 19c | 313.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…dcadbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 299.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 295$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 31c | 293.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 266.35$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.