Commodities · resolved market
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd302682785cc2541dc5f4cc4af51fa881667b603d4ee27f432ca57772ce5e8b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $867,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $968,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $867,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 77,594$6,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,948.5 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 3c | 32,226$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.04 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 9c | 28,930$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 5c | 27,251$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.49 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…29ddbacked Yes | 12c | 23,214$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 21,164$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 2c | 19,465$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes | 23c | 13,049$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 3c | 11,619$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.45 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes | 28c | 10,709$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…3ffabacked No | 2c | 9,624$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,419.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,606.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 8c | 9,500$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 10c | 7,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.91 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…93fbbacked No | 68c | 7,340$4,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 5,971$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.82 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…c328backed Yes | 2c | 5,830$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 5,714$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 12c | 5,177$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 79c | 5,166$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.38 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 3c | 5,048$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 17c | 4,783$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.02 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 6c | 4,772$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 18c | 4,673$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.05 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 79c | 3,656$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 33c | 3,655$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.81 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…6acfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,521$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 7c | 3,506$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 4c | 3,497$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 5c | 3,436$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 3,284$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,776$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.79 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed No | 77c | 2,578$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,279$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 73c | 2,155$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.54 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,956$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,851$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 14c | 1,777$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 1,742$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…2f1abacked Yes | 6c | 1,673$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 1,664$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 3c | 1,550$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.98 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…3544backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 78c | 1,413$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,365$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 45c | 1,330$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.17 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,316$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 13c | 1,300$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Yes | 19c | 1,062$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…743dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,053$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 6c | 1,045$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 20c | 1,018$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.59 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 1,014$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 1,005$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…d6abbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 6c | 915.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 7c | 899.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 6c | 840.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 10c | 808.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8d…29eebacked Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 795.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed No | 79c | 795.76$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 3c | 703.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 5c | 700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 24c | 650$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 637.81$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.82 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 11c | 635$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 634.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…af98backed Yes | 19c | 518.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb60a…4526backed Yes | 15c | 517.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…bc10backed Yes | 27c | 500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…77e1backed Yes | 4c | 495.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…7fabbacked Yes | 13c | 456.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No | 76c | 443.82$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 3c | 420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 20c | 410.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 15c | 407$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 25c | 386.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 13c | 375.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 22c | 357.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 17c | 355.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 344.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Yes | 26c | 328.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…b6dabacked Yes | 25c | 324.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…543bbacked Yes | 7c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 5c | 287$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 8c | 279.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0799…725cbacked No | 77c | 266.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ac…bd73backed Yes | 20c | 255.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.