TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3960…0975

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ligue 1, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ligue 1 at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT4112.2%5 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.95
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.14
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.63
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$510.6
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.55
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.78
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.59
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.16
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.77
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.94
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$139.2
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+669.2%+$536.79
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$391Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+818.5%+$3,198.22
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$101.7
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$30.42
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$35.03
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$56.88
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$49.73
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$132.99
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$53.68
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$80.24
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+143.9%+$73.75
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$300.91
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: England (-4.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.7
Spread: England (-5.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.49
Spread: England (-3.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.07
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.34
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+938.4%+$411.16
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+73.3%+$76.14
Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$56.72
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.79
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)backed Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.81
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)backed Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)backed Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$106.2
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.99
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.08
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.59
76ers vs. Nuggetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.6
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Pistons vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$55.55
Pacers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+130.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$278.97
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$35.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.