TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
United Statesof Paraguay, United States
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,352 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Paraguay1c17,893$227 inLost-$227.34,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Paraguay8c2,950$236 inLost-$2365616.1%9 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Paraguay7c2,695$189 inLost-$188.6551315.6%80 W · 433 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe39a…efc1backed Paraguay1c2,125$12 inLost-$127126.8%19 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid+14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Paraguay8c2,005$160 inLost-$160.412,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Paraguay8c2,000$160 inLost-$16028526.3%75 W · 210 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Paraguay8c1,356$108 inLost-$108.478,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Paraguay4c1,089$40 inLost-$40.033,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Paraguay2c1,024$17 inLost-$16.872,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Paraguay8c660$53 inLost-$52.82,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Paraguay8c625$50 inLost-$5054917.9%98 W · 451 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Paraguay8c625$50 inLost-$503067.8%24 W · 282 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa6…bfd5backed Paraguay8c625$50 inLost-$501739.2%16 W · 157 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295d…2613backed Paraguay8c625$50 inLost-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Paraguay7c614.88$43 inLost-$43.041,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc7…f7debacked Paraguay8c524.63$42 inLost-$41.9714939.6%59 W · 90 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Paraguay2c518.03$10 inLost-$10.362,45334.7%850 W · 1,603 L+84.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Paraguay8c500$40 inLost-$4011217%19 W · 93 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Paraguay2c492.03$10 inLost-$10.291225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Paraguay9c423.47$38 inLost-$389622.9%22 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Paraguay7c315$21 inLost-$21.28917.7%7 W · 84 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-64.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4248…d43fbacked Paraguay8c300$24 inLost-$243420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfb6…67edbacked Paraguay7c200$14 inLost-$142020%4 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3960…0975backed Paraguay8c185.13$15 inLost-$14.811330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbed…3b22backed Paraguay8c165.5$13 inLost-$13.2410634.9%37 W · 69 L-16.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Paraguay7c148$10 inLost-$10.3658530.9%181 W · 404 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.