TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Over39c3,010$1,174 inLost-$1,173.91,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec6…698bbacked Under61c2,481$1,518 inWon+$963.831681.3%13 W · 3 L+6.1wins+0.38per pick43cpaid+268.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x44c0…47c5backed Under61c819.67$500 inWon+$319.67988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick62cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd72e…c7d2backed Under78c815.52$636 inWon+$179.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa991…0935backed Over35c430.69$150 inLost-$149.969168.1%62 W · 29 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+44.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Over38c400$152 inLost-$1521,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8f…d0e4backed Over22c392.51$86 inLost-$86.3510137.6%38 W · 63 L+14.5wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+45.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked Over22c352.5$78 inLost-$77.557630.3%23 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Under65c352.38$229 inWon+$123.3319247.9%92 W · 100 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Over14c211.69$30 inLost-$29.646098.4%51 W · 558 L+0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5690…7a58backed Over20c179$36 inLost-$35.778731%27 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xac5a…1ac8backed Over20c124.55$24 inLost-$24.318231.7%26 W · 56 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Under66c89.35$59 inWon+$30.2780225.7%206 W · 596 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Over19c60.68$12 inLost-$11.5377845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under79c30$24 inWon+$6.337348.3%180 W · 193 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Under64c22.49$14 inWon+$8.194463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.