Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4ce0455e9b55a5a7be02c20330c7eacdd178e8173e6f095bb54ce844448b3b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Under | 10c | 35,632$3,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,556.91 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 10c | 31,610$3,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,252.13 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 10c | 13,143$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.3 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 10c | 12,342$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.2 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 10c | 11,359$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.94 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 10c | 11,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 320 | 31.6%101 W · 219 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…c2c6backed Under | 10c | 5,900$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 10c | 3,631$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.14 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…a203backed Under | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 10c | 2,795$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Under | 10c | 2,781$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed Under | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 11c | 1,456$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.11 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 10c | 1,285$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e57ebacked Under | 10c | 1,268$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 515 | 14.2%73 W · 442 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 26.5%81 W · 225 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 10c | 801.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 10c | 749.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 681 | 41.1%280 W · 401 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 10c | 613.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 11c | 507$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 334 | 43.4%145 W · 189 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…540fbacked Under | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Under | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 23.4%46 W · 151 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 10c | 429.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Under | 11c | 280$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 197 | 34.5%68 W · 129 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 11c | 247.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Under | 10c | 212.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Under | 9c | 210.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Under | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 170 | 5.9%10 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 10c | 200.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 10c | 190.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa956…666fbacked Under | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…89c9backed Under | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…c343backed Under | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed Under | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 181 | 18.2%33 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…9e8dbacked Under | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2af…c477backed Under | 10c | 161.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 10c | 161.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 265 | 37.7%100 W · 165 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…4576backed Under | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 11c | 125.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 823 | 48.8%402 W · 421 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…9c2fbacked Under | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae83…0f9dbacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…bec4backed Under | 11c | 93.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…4be5backed Under | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5this page
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)United States won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)United States won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.