TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x91d8…9e8d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
519
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 53 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT50146.1%231 W · 270 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 501 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+91.7%+$61.93
France vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$29.72
England to score first vs. Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+112%+$30.24
England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+255.3%+$413.62
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+154.1%+$83.23
Argentina to score first vs. England?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$6.75
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.9
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$53.01
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$52.59
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$151.9
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+154.7%+$55.71
England vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+271.2%+$439.4
Spain to score first vs. France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+48.3%+$8.18
France to score first vs. Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.55
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+129.5%+$93.25
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+306.4%+$275.75
Argentina to score first vs. Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$11.57
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$810
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$216
Showing 25 of 501 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Malisheva to score first vs. Hibernian FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+45.2%+$34.29
Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+72.9%+$124.58
Will Alashkert FA win on 2026-07-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.8
Will FC CFR 1907 Cluj win on 2026-07-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.6
Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will FC Malisheva win on 2026-07-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.68
FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$73.28
Will FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-07-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.5
FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Spread: FC Malisheva (-1.5)backed FC Malisheva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+226.1%+$569.76
FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+192%+$64.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+101.5%+$64.31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.