Europa Conference League · resolved market
Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ba4ee3d3a5eda1d118680d3bad36fca74bf4ac22838fcaa0553775d3c9e092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 47c | 1,981$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.85 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 47c | 1,057$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.24 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 55c | 935.38$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 799.09$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.46 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 46c | 350$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.66 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…9e8dbacked Over | 58c | 295.58$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 48c | 222.87$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…830fbacked Over | 60c | 173.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 51c | 147.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 49c | 137.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 63c | 125.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 77c | 122.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 42 | 90.5%38 W · 4 L | +10.6wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…545bbacked Under | 58c | 118.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 77c | 80.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 46c | 80.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Under | 25c | 79.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Under | 51c | 70.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…a275backed Over | 56c | 53.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 43c | 52.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 54c | 47.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 43.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…f6e3backed Under | 65c | 40.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…4817backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 36c | 28.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: Alashkert FA 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 0.5Over won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 1.5Over won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 2.5Under won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 3.5Under won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 4.5Under won
- Alashkert FA vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Alashkert FA (-1.5)FC CFR 1907 Cluj won
- Spread: FC CFR 1907 Cluj (-1.5)Alashkert FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.