TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,357,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,793,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,357,722 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,508 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c765,875$335,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335,043.964,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Over67c299,743$201,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,165.8115552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under36c239,162$86,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,888.722,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b4e…0232backed Under33c161,467$52,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,650.413354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under34c144,979$49,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,590.977152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under45c124,546$56,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,177.5425038.8%97 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over67c86,159$57,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,217.1364446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over61c78,038$47,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,658.513,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0286…f61dbacked Over67c70,000$47,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,924.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Under36c65,994$23,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,793.647163.4%45 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb754…96dfbacked Over38c65,254$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,254.441040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under46c64,203$29,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,325.142,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Under58c63,942$37,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,208.391136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Over53c58,847$30,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,856.9498134.8%341 W · 640 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over38c56,621$21,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,068.5674752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under16c53,369$8,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,600.6541331%128 W · 285 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb1…95b6backed Over66c50,000$32,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,024.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828c…5558backed Over39c50,000$19,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,750250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Under33c50,000$16,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,374.9826447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cd…2f2cbacked Over67c49,989$33,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,371.384178%32 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Over52c48,979$25,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,273.451,06331.7%337 W · 726 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over45c47,055$21,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,695.0442541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over68c43,370$29,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,014.011,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed Under44c43,230$19,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,066.815844.3%70 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over61c42,879$25,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,928.788,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Under33c42,684$14,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,003.7951032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…f983backed Under0c40,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027931.9%89 W · 190 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Under37c39,434$14,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,742.5514250%71 W · 71 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over68c37,642$25,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,941.362,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over59c34,677$20,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,136.9875729.3%222 W · 535 L-23.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under3c32,004$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.331,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x882f…a8c0backed Over59c31,000$18,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,732.445366%35 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…ea94backed Over38c26,800$10,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,54913725.5%35 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over52c25,073$13,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,965.0565737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a22…7b00backed Over60c25,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0003467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed Under33c25,000$8,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,124.911225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-51.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed Over38c24,979$9,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,493.831060%6 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+97.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over57c24,819$14,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,775.3214445.8%66 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16e…43afbacked Under0c23,330$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.959525.3%24 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…5e86backed Under35c23,250$8,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,039.8211642.2%49 W · 67 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under38c21,644$8,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,219.337223.4%87 W · 285 L-25.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed Under69c21,188$14,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,610.272774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8397…a04dbacked Over67c19,160$12,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,400.561838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Over55c16,800$9,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,477.1537944.1%167 W · 212 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over58c16,767$9,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,123.391,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over68c16,296$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,296.345428%127 W · 327 L-2.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Under32c16,114$5,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,231.6647144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Under32c16,000$5,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,196.347643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under51c15,787$7,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,993.5826841.8%112 W · 156 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Over50c15,201$7,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,584.9269826.1%182 W · 516 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Over67c14,900$10,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,879.7514045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x512b…a14ebacked Over67c14,870$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,869.892227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over67c14,816$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,915.564252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Over63c12,706$7,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,764.889451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over68c12,611$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.925952.5%31 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6796…2617backed Over44c12,500$5,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,944.983625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over38c12,494$4,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,748.2540655.7%226 W · 180 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Under62c12,400$7,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7195234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3387…c55dbacked Over68c12,275$8,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,927.87862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over38c12,000$4,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,432.523949.4%118 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Under32c12,000$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.2550243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Under32c12,000$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.248441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed Under43c11,936$5,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,174.4521738.7%84 W · 133 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ca6…5aa7backed Over67c11,845$7,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,856.371662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…fe05backed Under38c11,800$4,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,497.362254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Over38c11,764$4,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,293.6812255.7%68 W · 54 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Over45c11,695$5,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,380.7937955.7%211 W · 168 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Over67c11,407$7,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,717.4119529.7%58 W · 137 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed Over53c10,886$5,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,073.217550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Under6c10,855$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.1845145%203 W · 248 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dcb…062fbacked Under31c10,560$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e9…bc32backed Over38c10,201$3,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,306.177745.5%35 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Under37c10,176$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,770.2417642%74 W · 102 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Under0c10,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c6a…0b8cbacked Over67c10,000$6,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,275475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+163.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc82f…66a7backed Over67c10,000$6,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.9933235.5%118 W · 214 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Over51c9,822$4,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,837.4558530.9%181 W · 404 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda22…61d0backed Over68c9,641$6,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.747945.6%36 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under32c9,349$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.3222451.3%115 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under50c9,160$4,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.733,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under31c8,947$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.6530626.5%81 W · 225 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under22c8,748$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.192,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over52c8,712$4,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,179.551,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over68c8,600$5,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.51,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Over69c8,355$5,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.8420724.6%51 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under44c8,109$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,566.684,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over68c8,109$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,579.191,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Over68c8,040$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.1110059%59 W · 41 L+0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Over38c8,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,959.984452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Under33c8,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9721140.3%85 W · 126 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6f…1dfebacked Over53c7,512$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.748648.8%42 W · 44 L+10.1wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+77.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under49c7,509$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,668.5831851.9%165 W · 153 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Under60c7,490$4,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,519.4244130.8%136 W · 305 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…db36backed Over68c7,407$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.412152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7c…7c86backed Over53c7,308$3,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,461.945320.8%11 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over66c7,182$4,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.222,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Over54c7,011$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,237.2323558.3%137 W · 98 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Over68c7,000$4,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,257.518837.2%70 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Under33c7,000$2,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,284.17259.7%43 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Under1c6,667$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9725125.1%63 W · 188 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.