Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa07c90aaf4522c83fdd5d9ee3028abf40f6cfbae2da1944279762c6c5fcc5f11

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Englandof Argentina, England
Resolved: Jul 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $542,643
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $497,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $542,643 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x325f…4511backed Argentina	2c	45,124$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.67	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Argentina	3c	31,560$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.06	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Argentina	3c	24,243$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670.78	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Argentina	2c	20,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…0a8dbacked Argentina	3c	18,240$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.2	122	6.6%8 W · 114 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Argentina	2c	16,111$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.58	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Argentina	3c	15,528$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.84	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Argentina	2c	13,282$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.57	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Argentina	1c	12,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.99	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Argentina	3c	10,170$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.25	658	35%230 W · 428 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Argentina	3c	10,052$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.09	116	42.2%49 W · 67 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Argentina	3c	10,051$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.44	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Argentina	3c	10,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda39…c640backed Argentina	3c	9,900$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.1	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+319.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Argentina	3c	8,587$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.99	360	31.7%114 W · 246 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Argentina	3c	6,181$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.89	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ff…7ccbbacked Argentina	3c	6,085$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.68	254	18.1%46 W · 208 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Argentina	3c	6,000$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Argentina	3c	5,816$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.71	1,240	43.7%542 W · 698 L	+13.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Argentina	3c	5,763$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.4	657	37.4%246 W · 411 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca2…44fcbacked Argentina	1c	5,483$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.52	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-38%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Argentina	3c	5,343$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.94	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…2d49backed Argentina	3c	5,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Argentina	2c	4,537$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.57	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Argentina	3c	4,424$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.96	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Argentina	3c	3,448$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+182.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Argentina	3c	3,000$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-59%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Argentina	3c	2,920$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.16	977	42%410 W · 567 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Argentina	1c	2,807$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	272	27.6%75 W · 197 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Argentina	3c	2,709$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.46	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Argentina	3c	2,541$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.89	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Argentina	3c	2,502$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.11	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Argentina	1c	2,391$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	268	41.8%112 W · 156 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Argentina	1c	2,295$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.46	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Argentina	1c	2,046$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…a470backed Argentina	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Argentina	3c	1,969$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.79	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Argentina	1c	1,782$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x153c…e923backed Argentina	3c	1,667$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Argentina	1c	1,426$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	383	29.8%114 W · 269 L	-9.5wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Argentina	3c	1,289$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3533…9088backed Argentina	3c	1,154$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Argentina	3c	1,006$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.18	186	28.5%53 W · 133 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed Argentina	3c	999.96$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	150	34.7%52 W · 98 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c7…2ca3backed Argentina	3c	784.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a5…ce2fbacked Argentina	3c	768.46$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ac…e2b9backed Argentina	3c	746.33$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.39	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefdb…3312backed Argentina	3c	744$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	103	29.1%30 W · 73 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Argentina	3c	681.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d3…cae1backed Argentina	3c	672.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Argentina	3c	666$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.98	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd787…c146backed Argentina	2c	583.33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa46…8834backed Argentina	3c	573.94$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Argentina	3c	499.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf86…7ad9backed Argentina	3c	472.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	92	31.5%29 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c3…0fa8backed Argentina	3c	436.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Argentina	3c	432.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Argentina	3c	422.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9da…3ef5backed Argentina	3c	415.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec73…77e2backed Argentina	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-43%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0804…e278backed Argentina	3c	357.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329b…723ebacked Argentina	3c	305.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)this page
England vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
England vs. Argentina: England 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: England 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: England O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: England O/U 1.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: England O/U 2.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5Over won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5Under won
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceArgentina won
England vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
England vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)England won
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)England won
Spread: England (-1.5)Argentina won
Spread: England (-2.5)Argentina won
Spread: England (-3.5)Argentina won
Spread: England (-4.5)Argentina won
Spread: England (-5.5)Argentina won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event